India’s Interest in Latin America/South America must go beyond World Cup: Not just football superpowers, agriculture superpowers as well

Note: an abbreviated version of this article titled “India’s Interest in Latin America must go beyond World Cup” was syndicated by Indo-Asian News Wire Service. A few portals that ran the article include: SIFY, TradeIndia, IndiaNewsPost, ThaIndian, SouthAsiaMail, ProKerala, Gulf Times, Qatar and the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs.

Over the next few weeks, millions of Indians, like their compatriots around the world, will be glued to the television, cheering for their favorite World Cup teams. Among the South American teams are traditional favorites, Brazil and Argentina. But other teams from the region include Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile. All these countries are football superpowers, with a long history of producing players who dazzle with their stylish play: eyes-in-the-back-of-the-head passing, bicycle kicks, dancing and dribbling past three or more defenders before scoring. The names of Messi, Kaká, Tévez and Forlán will echo off fans’ lips well after the finals.

In India, meanwhile, fever for those South American fútbol stars tends to fade once the games are over. Yet there is an important reason why enthusiasm for South America should persist beyond the World Cup: The Mercosur trade bloc of countries – Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay are the world’s emerging agriculture superpowers. They are already shipping their tremendous surpluses worldwide and, as agriculture outsourcing hubs, have the potential to meet India’s food needs in the coming decades.

South American surpluses, especially in oilseeds, pulses and sugar, will feed the growing food deficits in much of Asia, with shrinking arable land and expanding populations.

First some geographical context, since South America – unlike Canada and the United States – generally doesn’t appear on the Indian radar. Brazil is three times the size of India. It is even larger than the continental United States. Yet its population is about that of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Argentina is nearly the size of India, with a population equivalent to New Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. Uruguay, sandwiched between Brazil and Argentina, is about the size of either Karnataka or Gujarat, three and a half times the size of Punjab, yet it holds less than half the population of Bangalore or Ahmedabad.

Flying from India to cities like Buenos Aires, Montevideo or Sao Paulo, located in the South Atlantic seaboard, is quicker than getting to California. All these Mercosur countries lie in the tropical and temperate latitudes where a wide range of crops can be grown, outside the zones of hurricanes, earthquakes or volcanoes.
What makes the agribusiness fundamentals so great in these countries?

  1. Farmland is abundant, and scale farming on parcel sizes of more than 1000 hectares the norm. Many farms are 4000 hectares and larger. The soil quality is extremely good. Soybean yields, for example, are 3 to 4 tons per hectare; corn yields range from 5 to 12 tons per hectare; and rice yields total more than 7 tons per hectare.
  2. While crop yields are at least two to three times greater than those in India, the cost of farmland is only a fraction of Indian prices. Most farmland comes with clean property titles.
  3. Agribusiness is well developed, analogous to the IT sector in India. A large pool of qualified agronomists – experts in soil science and management – conducts ongoing research in the most effective and efficient farm practices. Argentina introduced the technology of direct-seeding, which improves soil and moisture conservation, and which other nations now use. Harvard has selected leading South American agribusiness models as case studies in its own research.
  4. The Mercosur countries use the same or similar cutting-edge farm machinery and technology – the “no-till drill,” for example – found in the United States, Europe and Australia. A network of service providers assists with planting, harvesting and other aspects of the farming process. Logistics and supporting transport infrastructure are well developed.
  5. Agribusiness remains in private-sector hands; governments provide no farm subsidies. In some instances, the government taxes agriculture revenue; yet farming remains a profitable activity. So there is an ongoing imperative for innovation and efficiency to sustain the profitability.
  6. All the Mercosur countries have abundant fresh water, with networks of streams, lakes and perennial rivers. Rainfall occurs predictably throughout the year, which means there is little, if any, necessity for groundwater pumps.
  7. South America has 26 percent of the world’s freshwater and just 5 percent of the world’s population. Population growth rates are below replacement rates, so over the next 40 years, there will be little demographic pressure on water resources.

With these advantages, the Mercosur countries enjoy large agriculture export surpluses and ship 60 to 90 percent of their annual production to such countries as China, Vietnam, Korea and Japan. India imports their grains, edible oils and sugar.
On the socioeconomic front, Mercosur countries are democracies, with relatively little ethnic, religious or racial conflict. Cultural values, such as emphasis on family and relationships, resemble those in India. Indians will find a good business fit while operating in these countries. The Mercosur governments are dedicated to attracting responsible foreign investment and industry.

In South America, various combinations of buy/lease farming options are available, and annual financial returns can exceed 20 percent or more. In addition, farm portfolio managers in South America (akin to financial portfolio managers) can manage an agriculture operation for a fixed fee per hectare, plus a share of the profits. This would suit those Indian investors who know nothing about farming but do care about output and returns, and don’t want to deal with purchasing equipment or hiring personnel. Indian agrochemical companies like United Phosphorus and Excel Crop Care, and farm equipment players like Mahindra are reaping rewards from the South American agriculture market.

It is a fact that India’s domestic production cannot keep pace with the growing demands for more and better-quality food. It is time that Indian companies and investors look at South America for “backward integration” into farming operations. To use a World Cup analogy, it’s time to score goals for India’s food needs.

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Agribusiness Opportunities in South America

His family was originally from Serantes, Ferro...
Image via Wikipedia

In the just released, OECD agro outlook report, thru 2019, Latin America is projected to be the fastest growing agro production region.
I spoke about the opportunities for investing in various aspects of agribusiness value chain- encompassing contract farming, logistics,  food processing  in South America – specifically the Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay), at a recent CII Indo-LAC Conclave in New Delhi.

I also emphasized that the entrepreneur-driven, private-sector led agribusiness model, with little to no government subsidies in the the Mercosur countries is a safer long-term bet for Indian investors, who need to follow in the the footsteps of their American and European counterparts.

The FAO estimates that in the next 40 years 120 million additional hectares need to be brought under cultivation to feed the increase in world population to about 9.2 billion by 2050. Much of this will be in the Mercosur countries where currently about 1/3 of potential farmland is being utilized.

Speech in 2 parts below:

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Water Wars – Winners and Losers; Latin America a Winner, India a Loser

The agricultural output of India over the next 3 decades could be severely curtailed if water shortages are not addressed. The populist measure of giving Indian farmers free power has resulted in rapid depletion of groundwater supplies for agriculture. I saved Andy Mukherjee’s Bloomberg columns from 2 years go where he wrote about problems created from lack of wastewater treatment/underpricing of piped water and from a switch to biofuels.

The recent monsoon which has been below normal in India (June precipitation was the lowest in 80 years), have not only caused heartburn in agricultural circles, but also have led to fights breaking out in urban areas over access to reduced water supplies.

Going forward, India faces 2 serious challenges with water supplies for agriculture, both beyond its control:
1) Climate change is causing rapid melt in the Himalayan glaciers “suggesting that the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers that criss-cross the northern Indian plain may become seasonal rivers in the near future as a consequence of climate change with important ramifications for poverty and the economies in the region.” At least 400 million farmer livelihoods are at risk.

2) Plans to divert water from the Brahmaputa by the Chinese government to feed its parched western/northwestern regions. Even though this is denied in official circles, there is little doubt that this will not be carried out knowing the CCP’s penchant for grandiose-projects like Three Gorges and preventing rain from falling during the Olympic opening ceremony. Moreover, Tibet – China’s Water Tower
is also the source for the Ganges river’s 2 major tributaries – the Kosi and the Gandaki. Attempts to “bottle those rivers” by official apparatchiks cannot be ruled out. The consequences for Indian agriculture are too staggering to contemplate.

Bottomline: Lower riparian states like India, and Iraq as mentioned in a recent NYTimes article, besides various countries in the Middle East and Africa, are almost guaranteed losers in the coming wars over water.

And the, Winners: Fresh Water paradises like Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay – perfect candidates for being India’s Agricultural Outsourcing providers. South american rivers like Amazon, Orinoco, Sao Francisco, Parana, Paraguay and Magdalena rivers contain more than 30 percent of the earth’s surface water. Add to that the Guarani Aquifer – the world’s single biggest groundwater source.

It is worthwhile for executives in India’s food and agriculture sector to keep these considerations in mind as they make plans for future growth and business contingencies.

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Salto and Guaviyú – Taking the Waters in Uruguay’s Gaucho Corner

NYTimes.com

Of the 1.8 million visitors to Uruguay in 2006, more than half were Argentine. But quietly, Uruguay is developing a second vacation spot that may help uncouple its tourism fortunes from Buenos Aires. It has found its best hope 3,000 feet underground, in the hot springs along the Uruguay River, a once-isolated region that even Uruguayans lump in with the rest of the “interior” — anywhere outside Punta del Este and the capital, Montevideo.

Since the discovery of the hot springs in the 1940s, by an oil exploration team wildcatting along the Argentine border, Uruguay has developed an impressively varied string of private resorts, public campgrounds, water parks and dude ranches. All tap the Guaraní Aquifer, the largest in the continent, funneling its toasty and mineral-rich water into indoor and outdoor baths.

…discovering in the hot springs an authentically Uruguayan experience
that comes without sacrificing the comforts of the coastal resorts.

Uruguay, 2007 LatAm tourism growth champ

Insel Cayo Levantado a...Image via Wikipedia

Mercopress
Panama continues to be the fastest-growing tourism market in Latin America, but Uruguay is the winner when it comes to growth in receipts. Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic is the country with the region’s highest receipts as a percentage of GDP, according to a Latin Business Chronicle analysis of new data from the World Tourism Organization.

Foreign buyers eye Uruguayan land

Montevideo, capital of the country. A view of pedestrian street in the Ciudad Vieja, former Spanish citadel

Image via Wikipedia

BBC NEWS
why is this South American country, sandwiched between Argentina, Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean, so attractive to foreign investors?

“Uruguay is a small area in the broader region where buyers find better prices and political and economic stability,” said Eduardo Caldeyro from Caldeyro-Stajano, a land sales broker.

“Curiously enough, for the first time we are receiving enquiries from Americans; within South America we get calls from Argentines, Brazilians and a few Colombians. From Europe, it is mostly Spanish real estate investors, who are facing a sharp slowdown there.”

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Uruguay in gas field find claim

BBC NEWS
Uruguay says it may have found a large natural gas field that would change it from an importer to an exporter of gas.

The announcement of the possible find, which could also contain oil, was made by President Tabare Vazquez in a note on his official website.

Local reports say that the field could contain as much as three trillion cubic feet (85bn cubic metres) of gas but there has not yet been any drilling.

Sowing seeds of success

Follow-up to the NYT article a few days ago. In fact, a couple of lines in this article refer to quotes in that article.

viaThe Economic Times
Countries are on a global hunt to secure for themselves supplies of all commodities — metals, energy and food — that they consider of strategic importance for their future development. Politics be damned.

No country scalded by a volatile international market in recent months wants to depend on intermediary trading companies and vagaries of fluctuating prices. Governments have realised that it is often impossible to predict supply squeezes, which can occur due to causes below their radar. That makes protecting a country’s supply pipeline from drying up even more difficult.

Beijing also plans to encourage Chinese companies to buy farmland abroad, particularly in Africa and South America, to help guarantee food security. India itself is among those seeking to augment local supplies with self-owned resources overseas. Public sector oil marketing companies plan to invest in Brazilian ethanol to supplement local supply and protect against failure of Indian cane crop. A handful of Indian edible oil companies may use Exim Bank to buy 10,000 hectares (at $3000/hectare) of fertile farmland to grow soyabean, maize and sunflower in Uruguay and Paraguay.

[S]trategic resources are at heightened risk from growing demand, fragmented supply chains, climate change, political turmoil and volatile financial markets.

Farming Systems looks beyond Uruguay

A model that Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd could consider replicating.

via NZ Herald:
Dairy farm operator NZ Farming Systems Uruguay continues to buy up land in the South American country, while eyeing opportunities across the border.

NZ Farming Systems was set up by PGG Wrightson to develop dairy farm operations in Uruguay and was floated on the stock exchange in December.

The company has bought another 4400ha of farmland in Uruguay during the current half-year, taking its total holding to 36,300ha.

Chairman Keith Smith said the cost of land was rising but the entry price was still low and the economics of development attractive.

The land purchased came at an average price of US$3700 (4692) a hectare.

PGG Wrightson group general manager financial services Michael Thomas said comparable land in New Zealand could cost between US$45,000 and US$50,0000 a hectare.

Uruguay drought creates energy crisis

18 de Julio - Main street in Montevideo

I stayed at the Central Palace hotel on 18 de Julio, in Montevideo last month. When I arrived on 20th April, late at night, I was wondering why there were no street lights. In the following days, I was told of the energy crisis. Wind energy projects need to be installed and brought online in double-quick time.

via MiamiHerald.com
First, the escalators stopped. Then shadows crept across the city in what appeared to be an epidemic of dead light bulbs.

As winter approaches, Uruguay has found itself in the grips of an intensifying energy crisis, brought about by a three-month drought that has crippled the country’s hydroelectric power generators. The scarcity — at a time of record high prices for imported oil — is prompting strict conservation measures.

For a while, the drought had little impact in Uruguay’s capital, where nearly half of all Uruguayans live and there is ample drinking water. But after the third unusually dry month in a row, President Tabaré Vázquez has initiated Phase 2 of the national ”Plan to Save Energy,” ordering businesses and homeowners to cut their energy use deeply.

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