Promoting India Latin America Collaboration

Agriculture has a wonderful future for the next 5 to 15 years

Jim Rogers on CNBC.com


Remember, I told you to become a farmer
I know how I told you to learn to drive a tractor
Farming is still going to be a very good place to be
Agriculture…if I were buying something today rice is probably something I would look at
Agriculture has a wonderful future for the next 5, 10 15 years

It’s been a horrible business for 30 years. Very few people have invested in agriculture. Many countries don’t even have farmers anymore. They’re all old men. In Japan they cannot find farmers cuz all the old men have died and their kids have gone to Tokyo or Osaka. Basic point is there has been no investment in agriculture for 30 years.

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Lula’s Brazilian revolution

In advance of Brazil’s Presidential elections tomorrow. There is no doubt that after 2 terms of President Lula, who built on the reforms of President Cardoso, Brazil is irrevocably a serious country on the international stage. He will be justifiably regarded by most of his fellow citizens as Brazil’s greatest president since that country’s independence in 1822.
RT YouTube

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India’s Suzlon Plans to Export Wind Turbines to Brazil from China

Los molinos de viento ganan popularidad en la India
 WSJ.com

Suzlon Energy Ltd. plans to open a research-and-development center in China and to make the first large export of turbines from its Chinese factory, its chairman said.

Chaiman Mr. Tanti, speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, an annual meeting of business leaders, politicians and others, said the planned export of 120 megawatts of wind turbines to Brazil marks the first time Suzlon is using its low-cost manufacturing and supply base in China for sales overseas and is part of broader plan to increase exports from China.

The Brazil deal could be valued at as much as $200 million, based on an industry average for deals of that size. Mr. Tanti declined to specify the value or the name of the buyer, but said the deal could be the largest export of wind turbines from China from a domestic or foreign producer. Each turbine will have a capacity of 2.1 megawatts. They are scheduled for delivery next year, he said. Suzlon, which Mr. Tanti founded in Pune, India, in 1995, is now one of the biggest wind-power companies in the world.

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Latin America’s impressive little guys: Uruguay and Paraguay

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beyondbrics | FT.com

Talk about Latin America’s rising stars and the focus is often on Peru or Colombia. But don’t overlook the little countries: Paraguay and Uruguay are punching above their weight – and both have just been upgraded by rating agency Standard’s & Poor’s.

That’s a tribute to their economic performance: Uruguay rode out the global crisis without recession, while Paraguay is growing at its fastest rate in 30 years. Both are also catching the attention of some foreign corporate investors.

After 2.9 per cent growth in 2009, Uruguay is now on course for 6.5 per cent this year. S&P has moved its sovereign debt rating to double B minus. That’s within two notches of investment grade, which is what Uruguay lost in 2002 during an economic crisis that spilled over from neighbouring Argentina. Its president, José Mujica, wants to regain [investment grade] status before his term ends in 2014.

Uruguay last month hosted a business promotion seminar organised by the Council of the Americas, whose president, Susan Segal, said US investors were looking with interest at agriculture, biotechnology and technology exchange opportunities in the Atlantic-coast country. Uruguay sees natural resources as key to future growth: it is already exploiting a gap in the market left by declining Argentine beef production, and is seeking to develop what it believes are large offshore hydrocarbons resources. But Mujica has also appealed for young people to “fall in love with maths and scientific analysis” to lay the foundations for a tech-savvy future.

Paraguay, a landlocked country whose population is unique in Latin America by still speaking the language of its Indian ancestors, Guaraní, is also emerging as a promising investment destination. Rio Tinto Alcan is planning to invest $2.5bn in an aluminium smelter. To give a sense of the project’s scale, the investment is equal to virtually half the reserves of the central bank. What’s more, Paraguay’s economy is on fire – set to grow at around 9 per cent this year, a 30-year-high according to Gabriel Torres, analyst at Moody’s Investor Service.

Central bank reserves have doubled in the last three years and political stability has increased under the presidency of Fernando Lugo, who took office in 2008 after 61 years of one-party rule.

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One Laptop Per Child- Plan Ceibal (Uruguay)

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Agriculture is one of the great places to be – Jim Rogers on Bloomberg UTV in India

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Jim speaking at an event – “Investment strategies in an emerging financial lanscape”. Funny to see the Indian interviewer’s (probably an MBA!) WTF reaction to Jim’s comments on agriculture. In trying to sell the attractiveness of the farming business in South America to potential investors, I’ve found the going rough in India. People cannot imagine farming as a lucractive proposition, like it is in South America. No Indian middle class family would want their kids to get into farming. Heck, even Indian farmers – almost half of whom want to quit farming, don’t want their kids to be farmers! Farming and agribusiness gets a bum rap in India, because it is a disastrous business there – afflicted with a nexus of misdirected subsidies, price support, import and export controls, collapse of extension services, absence of an agricultural land market and pervasive corrupt bureaucratic intervention across the entire range of the rural economy, as Dr. Rajiv Kumar of ICRIER so eloquently states.

One of the CEOs of an Indian agrochemical company shared a story with me last month. One of his employees approached him asking for his help in finding a job for the employee’s 25 year old nephew back in the village. When the CEO asked what the son was doing, the employee replied “Nothing” The CEO said “How can he be doing nothing, he is 25 years old?” The employee replied, “He is dabbling in farming, that is like doing nothing!”

YouTube – Jim Rogers on Bloomberg UTV.

Agriculture in my view, is one of the best places to be in the next 30 Years , I mean all these people getting MBAs are making terrible mistakes as far as I’m concerned , they should be getting farming degrees.

Agriculture has been a disaster for 30 years…Agricultural products are gonna be the best investments over the next several years. I think farming…agriculture is gonna be one of the best industries in the world. Like I said, all people who got MBAs made a mistake, they should have been getting agriculture degree.

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India’s water shortage for agriculture

I visited Punjab and talked to some farmers there in Feb ’2010, and they told me within 10 years groundwater in most places will be below a 100 feet, and pumps will stop working. Within 20 years, they are looking at a desert like situation in India’s bread basket.

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via Fortune

As the water table drops dangerously low, [Punjabi] farmers are investing heavily – and often going into debt – to bore deeper wells and install more powerful pumps. A prayer might just be the best chance for survival.

Punjab has only 1.5 percent of India’s land, but its output of rice and wheat accounts for 50 percent of the grain the government purchases to feed more than 400 million poor Indians. Experts say the 375-foot-deep tube well and 7.5-horsepower pump Kumar is installing for a farmer are at the eye of a storm that threatens India’s food security, environmental health, and economic progress. “We have depleted the ground water to such an extent that it is devastating the country,” says Gurdev Hira, an expert on soil and water at Punjab Agriculture University in Ludhiana. Hira estimates that the energy used to subsidize rice production in the region costs $381 million a year. He and other experts warn that, if left unchecked, future drilling will bleed state budgets, parch aquifers, and run farmers out of business.

The problem is not only that farmers are mining aquifers faster than they can be replenished. As water levels drop, pumps are also sapping an already fragile and overtaxed electricity grid. And because farmers in Punjab pay nothing for electricity, they run their pumps with abandon, which further depletes the water table.
India’s power sector loses as much as $9 billion a year subsidizing farmers’ use of electric pumps. That’s half of what the country spends on health and twice what it spends on education. Says Shreekant Gupta, a professor of economics at Delhi University: “It’s a classic example of bad economic policies having serious environmental consequences.”

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Charter Cities: The Politically Incorrect Guide to Ending Poverty

This is ‘governance outsourcing’ - benchmarking it to global best practices, and giving opportunity to thousands of citizens, and later millions, to improve their lives quickly – instead of leading miserable lives under local political leaders who are criminal and/or incompetent and local institutions that are dysfunctional. An experiment, if succceful, others will want to copy. In India, getting land for SEZs has been a nightmare in many states – but then again taking away prime agricultural land in a non-transparent way from farmers, instead of marginal land, to build industry is a dumb idea.

Politicians and NGOs that make their living from the handout/aid model being perpetuated won’t approve. Fish don’t vote for sushi bars.

Magazine – The Atlantic

In the 1990s, Paul Romer revolutionized economics. Now he’s trying to help the poorest countries grow rich—by convincing them to establish foreign-run “charter cities” within their borders. Romer’s idea is unconventional, even neo-colonial—the best analogy is Britain’s historic lease of Hong Kong.

When Romer explains charter cities, he likes to invoke Hong Kong. For much of the 20th century, Hong Kong’s economy left mainland China’s in the dust, proving that enlightened rules can make a world of difference. By an accident of history, Hong Kong essentially had its own charter—a set of laws and institutions imposed by its British colonial overseers—and the charter served as a magnet for go-getters. At a time when much of East Asia was ruled by nationalist or Communist strongmen, Hong Kong’s colonial authorities put in place low taxes, minimal regulation, and legal protections for property rights and contracts; between 1913 and 1980, the city’s inflation-adjusted output per person jumped more than eightfold, making the average Hong Kong resident 10 times as rich as the average mainland Chinese, and about four-fifths as rich as the average Briton.

Then, beginning around 1980, Hong Kong’s example inspired the mainland’s rulers to create copycat enclaves. Starting in Shenzhen City, adjacent to Hong Kong, and then curling west and north around the Pacific shore, China created a series of special economic zones that followed Hong Kong’s model. Pretty soon, one of history’s greatest export booms was under way, and between 1987 and 1998, an estimated 100 million Chinese rose above the $1-a-day income that defines abject poverty. The success of the special economic zones eventually drove China’s rulers to embrace the export-driven, pro-business model for the whole country. “In a sense, Britain inadvertently, through its actions in Hong Kong, did more to reduce world poverty than all the aid programs that we’ve undertaken in the last century,” Romer observes drily.

As politically freighted as Romer’s ideas are, they also carry a continuing attraction to the people in charge of many poor countries, particularly those with rapidly growing populations. By some estimates, 3 billion people will move to cities in the next few decades, abandoning miserable and environmentally destructive work as subsistence farmers in the hope of better lives in manufacturing and services. In the absence of a Romer-type solution, these migrants will move into urban slums with no running water, high crime rates, few steady jobs, and sewage in the streets; charter cities seem a better option. And Romer’s idea has the great merit of paying for itself. Land in successful cities appreciates in value, creating wealth that can be unlocked to finance new buildings, businesses, and infrastructure.

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Uruguay – a jewel of a country that should be considered by Indian investors

Uruguay is a country few outside Argentina and Brazil know about – each Dec-Feb rich Brazilians and Argentines flock to the fashionable resort of Punta del Este, the Riviera of Latin America. I am convinced it offers excellent opportunities for Indian investors in corporate farming and forestry – not to mention IT services and serving as a final assembly/logistics hub for product distribution in Mercosur countries.
My business partners at Allied Venture put together a 3 minute video showing some of the country’s highlights.


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US Financial Crisis

Prof. Nouriel Roubini of NYU is probably one of the first economists to have correctly called this financial crisis, as early as 2006. I saw him on Charlie Rose last night and when asked “Is there an end in sight?” he replied  “We are in the second or third inning (baseball metaphor) of a nine-inning game”. The video is not up yet now!]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-605745015052062087

Here are some of his comments last week giving context to the Fannie/Freddie bailout.

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