Why Prices of Commodities – Oil, Metals, Food and Farmland will skyrocket over the next decade

as investors diversify into assets that cannot be “printed”. People like Jim Rogers and Marc Faber have been saying this for years, and Boston University econ Prof. Larry Kotlikoff says the U.S. is heading towards an Argentina 2001-like sovereign crisis.

Three Horrifying Facts About the US Debt “Situation” | zero hedge

#1 The US Fed is now the second largest owner of US Treasuries.

That’s right, this week we overtook Japan, leaving China as the only country with greater ownership of US Debt. And we’re printing money to buy it. Setting aside the fact that this is abject lunacy, this policy is trashing [the USD} which has fallen 13% since June…

#2: “There are only about $550 billion of Treasuries outstanding with a remaining maturity of greater than 10 years.”

the US has entered a debt spiral: a time in which fewer and fewer investors are willing to lend to us for any long period of time… at the exact same time that we must roll over trillions in old debt and issue an additional $100-150 billion in NEW debt per month in order to finance our massive deficit.

#3: The US will Default on its Debt

… either that or experience hyperinflation. There is simply no other option. We can NEVER pay off our debts. To do so would require every US family to pay $31,000 a year for 75 years. Obviously that ain’t going to happen.So default is in the cards. Either that or hyperinflation (which occurs when investors flee a currency). Either of these will be massively US Dollar negative

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Cash Crops: Buying Farmland for Income in South America

Investors nervous about the stock market and in search of better returns than a money-market fund might consider plowing cash into farmland, say some financial planners.

Wheat farm in Uruguay

The Article talks about the prospects for US farmland, but South American farmland is worth a look by US HNW investors. An acquisition of farmland parcels of, say 1000 hectares, in the grain belt of South America is available at a fraction of prices in the U.S. Midwest. Grain farming here, unlike in the U.S., receives zero government subsidies, yet is quite profitable. The farming market is completely dollarized, both purchases and receivables, alleviating currency risk. Besides, generating 5% or so in annual income, the potential annual land appreciation is a few percentage points higher than U.S. comparables. There are farm management companies that structure and manage operations for a fixed fee - plus a share of the profits. Ideal even for investors, with a non-farming background, who are interested in yields and profits. Local bank financing is also available.

Posted via web from induslatin’s posterous

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Venezuela strays from its policy of nationalization

Venezuela has been particularly hard hit by the global recession over the last few years. Last year alone, the country experienced 27% inflation and a 2.9 percent decline in economic output. Times are tough enough, in fact, that famed “anti-capitalist and Marxist” Hugo Chávez has declared that, “Investment and experience from foreign oil firms is necessary in Venezuela. We need it.”

Venezuela has long been criticized by the US and others for its policy of nationalization, which it has pursued with vigor in industries like telecommunications and oil. Chávez actually nationalized the entire oil industry in 2007, but recently, that trend has begun to change; Chevron inked a deal worth multi-billions of dollars to drill in Venezuela after it submitted the winning bid for some oil blocks in the first oil auction since Chávez took office 11 years ago. A second group of companies, previously highlighted on this blog, won a different set of oil blocks.

According to the NY Times, this deal signals a significant shift in strategy for Venezuela and Chávez.

After clashing with foreign oil companies in recent years, President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela has shifted strategy and awarded contracts to Western oil companies, hoping to increase his nation’s flagging oil production and pull the country out of a sharp economic downturn.

Chevron, the American oil giant, led a group of companies that won one of the concessions on Wednesday night…

Furthermore, this shift in oil policy may indicate that Venezuela will be seeking warmer relations in general with the United States and other countries that Chávez has been prone to demonizing.

In an unusual display of warmth given his friction with Washington, Mr. Chávez happily greeted a senior Chevron executive in attendance, Ali Moshiri, the company’s president of African and Latin American operations. Mr. Chávez conceded that differences remained with the Obama administration, but he also extended an invitation for President Obama to visit Venezuela’s southern oil region, telling Mr. Moshiri, “You bring him here.”

This latest development in Venezuela may be part of a general shift in Latin America from the left to the center. Other indications of this current centralist trend include the election of a right-wing billionaire in Chile’s presidential election, the strong success of Brazilian President Lula who governed from the center-left, and an overall decline in combative left-right discourse throughout South and Central America.

Emerging market characteristics in nexus between US govt and Wall Street

Simon Johnson  documents how Wall Street lobbying to obtain favored status with US politicians, not only precipitated this financial crisis, but also is preventing an adequate resolution – policy decisions are being made to favor banks at the expense of taxpayers, thus setting the US up to follow in the footsteps of Russia and  Argentina.
The Atlantic Online

the U.S. economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets (and only in emerging markets): South Korea (1997), Malaysia (1998), Russia and Argentina (time and again). In each of those cases, global investors, afraid that the country or its financial sector wouldn’t be able to pay off mountainous debt, suddenly stopped lending. And in each case, that fear became self-fulfilling, as banks that couldn’t roll over their debt did, in fact, become unable to pay. Just as in emerging-market crises, the weakness in the banking system has quickly rippled out into the rest of the economy, causing a severe economic contraction and hardship for millions of people.

But there’s a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests—financiers, in the case of the U.S.—played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them.

the U.S. is unique. And just as we have the world’s most advanced
economy, military, and technology, we also have its most advanced
oligarchy.
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Mexico the new dental destination

Some cash rich Indian hospital chain needs to consolidate  these solo/duo dental practitioners South of the US border  – and speed up regulatory compliance and obtain insurance company blessing for these procedures, after the necessary rebranding. Apollo, Fortis, Wockhardt anybody?!

A huge belt from Mexico to Central America and the Caribbean are ripe pickings. Indian specialist doctors can be flow-in for 2 to 3 month shifts to augment local medical talent.
At a CII Latin American conclave held in Bangalore on Feb 24-25, Ana Vilma de Escobar, VP of El Salvador was making the same pitch – for Indian hospitals to locate in that country to serve American clients. 2 hr plan ride from Miami, Houston etc.
chicagotribune.com

[Los Algodones] a sleepy village on the U.S. border into the latest boomtown of medical tourism, the practice of traveling abroad to get medical care. From face-lifts in Costa Rica to heart surgery in India, medical tourism has become a $60 billion enterprise by one estimate.

Los Algodones, population 4,000, is home to about 350 dentists geared to foreign patients, including snowbirds from Chicago and elsewhere in the upper Midwest. Their treatment comes at a huge discount—70 percent or more—from what Americans pay at home, a reality that many patients call an indictment of U.S. health care.

But U.S. medical authorities warn that this desert outpost is a medical Wild West, an unregulated environment where substandard providers can hang their shingle without the same oversight that exists in the United States.

Rubbing his jaw after getting a dental implant, Wisconsin native Carl Zeutzius downplayed those worries, saying he was pleased by the care and by a bill that was 75 percent cheaper than in the U.S.

“We’re in favor of helping the economy in the United States, but we don’t want to be ripped off, either,” said Zeutzius, who winters in Arizona with his wife, Chris.

A recent survey reported about 350 dentists working in 160 offices. While pharmacies and eye doctors also share the sidewalks with quesadilla stands and souvenir vendors, dental care is the real engine. A Phoenix company, Dayo Dental, organizes van rides to make the three-hour run each way. TLC Dental has even opened a bed-and-breakfast adjacent to its dental office for visitors who want to make an overnight trip of it.

The consulting firm Deloitte found that 2 in 5 Americans would go abroad for medical care if they could save 50 percent of costs and were assured that the quality of care was comparable.

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Mr. Lula goes to Washington

Lula is not only a political and diplomatic pro, but also a statesman. Amazingly, he comes off as more prepared than Obama with solid answers to reporter questions, with a sense of humor as well. Political leadership of this sort inspires business confidence in a country. Must watch link -
CSPAN Video- Pres. Obama & Brazilian President Lula’s press conference

What is brought up by a Brazilian reporter is the thorny trade issue of the US tariff on imported ethanol from Brazil. A policy that is not only bad economics, but bad morality – promoting corn-based ethanol in deference to the US domestic farm lobby that results in higher global food prices for corn-based foods.

Two other videos of Lula being interviewed that show his considerable skills no doubt honed from years as a union leader dealing with tough opponents. His incredible life story – going from a shoe-shine boy to Brazil’s president, is one that needs more press coverage outside Latin America.

Frost Over The World – President Lula – 08 Jun 07

Soundbite Central: President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
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Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis

All future visualizations of complex issues should emulate this example. With input by Jess Bachman of Death and Taxes fame.  As an aside, a compelling graphic of the spike in US home values driven by easy credit and their projected deflation with the popping of the credit bubble.
via Mint Blog (20%)

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Trade with Latin America: Comparison of US, China and India

India’s trade with Latin America was $11 billion last year. So, a long way to go. For historical context, China’s trade with LatAm was about $13 billion in 2000.

Indian companies’ success in the United States – especially in IT software and services, pharmaceuticals, engineering products puts them in a good position to gain a foothold in similar sectors in Latin America. Success case studies from the U.S. need to be played up during sales efforts in Latin America. And of course, the cultural fit with India and Latin America is quite good.

Also, Indian companies strength in the services sector is worthy of emulation by many LatAm countries, with small populations, who cannot be globally competitive in manufacturing.

The Associated Press:

China’s trade with Latin America was $102 billion last year, but already in the first nine months of this year it reached $111 billion, Chile’s ambassador to Beijing, Fernando Reyes, told The Associated Press. That compares with U.S.-Latin American trade of $560 billion last year.

“The United States maintains deep cultural and economic ties in Latin America ,” said Washington-based Nicholas Consonery of the Eurasia Group.

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Wall Street 1929 vs 2008

wall_st_1929vs2008.jpg (JPEG Image, 389×500 pixels)

Professor Roubini weighs in on the validity of the above cartoon: ““spending $700 (increased now to $810) billion of public money is the best way to recapitalize
banks has absolutely no factual basis or justification. This way of
recapitalizing financial institutions is a total rip-off that will
mostly benefit – at a huge expense for the U.S. taxpayer – the
shareholders and even unsecured creditors of the banks. ….The pockets
of reckless bankers and investors (will) have been made fatter under
the fake argument that bailing out Wall Street was necessary to rescue
Main Street from a severe recession.”

He continues “the Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders
and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and
financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost
to the US taxpayer
. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe
stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a
systemic meltdown. It is pathetic that Congress did not consult any of
the many professional economists that have presented – many on the RGE Monitor Finance blog forum
- alternative plans that were more fair and efficient and less costly
ways to resolve this crisis. This is again a case of privatizing the
gains and socializing the losses
; a bailout and socialism for the rich,
the well-connected and Wall Street.”

The Real Great Depression – Lessons from history

ChronicleReview.com

As a historian who works on the 19th century, I have been reading my newspaper with a considerable sense of dread. While many commentators on the recent mortgage and banking crisis have drawn parallels to the Great Depression of 1929, that comparison is not particularly apt. Two years ago, I began research on the Panic of 1873, an event of some interest to my colleagues in American business and labor history but probably unknown to everyone else…In fact, the current economic woes look a lot like what my 96-year-old grandmother still calls “the real Great Depression.” She pinched pennies in the 1930s, but she says that times were not nearly so bad as the depression her grandparents went through. That crash came in 1873 and lasted more than four years. It looks much more like our current crisis.

If there are lessons from 1873, they are different from those of 1929. Most important, when banks fall on Wall Street, they stop all the traffic on Main Street — for a very long time.

The post-panic winners, even after the bailout, might be those firms — financial and otherwise — that have substantial cash reserves. A widespread consolidation of industries may be on the horizon, along with a nationalistic response of high tariff barriers, a decline in international trade, and scapegoating of immigrant competitors for scarce jobs. The failure in July of the World Trade Organization talks begun in Doha seven years ago suggests a new wave of protectionism may be on the way.

In the end, the Panic of 1873 demonstrated that the center of gravity for the world’s credit had shifted west — from Central Europe toward the United States. The current panic suggests a further shift — from the United States to China and India.
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