Latin America’s new promise…and why India should pay attention


Nobody’s backyard | The Economist

look beyond the headlines, and, as our special report shows, something remarkable is happening in Latin America. In the five years to 2008 the region’s economies grew at an annual average rate of 5.5%, while inflation was in single digits. The financial crisis briefly interrupted this growth, but it was the first in living memory in which Latin America was an innocent bystander, not a protagonist. This year the region’s economy will again expand by more than 5%. Economic growth is going hand in hand with social progress. Tens of millions of Latin Americans have climbed out of poverty and joined a swelling lower-middle class. Although income distribution remains more unequal than anywhere else in the world, it is at least getting less so in most countries. While Latin American squabbling politicians blather on about integration, the region’s businesses are quietly getting on with the job—witness the emerging cohort of multilatinas.

Brazil, the region’s powerhouse, is the cause of much of the excitement. But Chile, Colombia and Peru are growing as handsomely and even Mexican society is forging ahead, despite the drug violence and the deeper recession visited on it by its ties to the more sickly economy in the United States.

Two things lie behind Latin America’s renaissance. The first is the appetite of China and India for the raw materials with which the continent is richly endowed. But the second is the improvement in economic management that has brought stability to a region long hobbled by inflation and has fostered a rapid, and so far sustainable, expansion of credit from well-regulated banking systems. Between them, these two things have created a virtuous circle in which rising exports are balanced by a growing domestic market.

Latin America Tourism

Three factors that can derail India’s growth

Rediff.com Business

Water

Freshwater withdrawal today by steel, cement, aluminium, fertiliser, paper and power sectors is equivalent to the total domestic water demand (around 42 billion cubic metres per annum).
Freshwater consumption (water that is lost through evaporation, products and wastes in industries) equals the total drinking and cooking water needs of India (5.6 billion cubic metres per annum). The difference between freshwater withdrawal and consumption is the wastewater discharged by industries, which pollutes our rivers, lakes and groundwater.

By 2030, freshwater withdrawal by these six sectors will increase by 40 per cent and freshwater consumption by more than three-fold. A three-fold increase in consumption means less water will be available downstream for other users.
There is already a growing conflict between industry and local communities on water scarcity and pollution. This will exacerbate in future.

Land

Currently, around 0.7 million hectares (ha) of land are occupied by these six sectors – 0.4 million ha to mine coal, iron ore, limestone and bauxite, and 0.3 million ha for the plants. In an 8 per cent growth trajectory, another 1-1.3 million ha will be required by these six sectors – which means the amount of land needed in the next 20 years will be far higher than what they have acquired in last 60 years.

It is important to understand that India has an adverse land-population ratio (per capita land availability is a mere 0.25 ha)

Look to Brasilia, Not Beijing

 WSJ.com

a more compelling challenge to the current world order may be emerging from an unlikely trio of countries that boast both impeccable democratic credentials and serious global throw weight. They are India, Brazil and South Africa and their little-noticed experiment in foreign policy coordination since 2003 to promote subtle but potentially far-reaching changes to the international system has the potential to leave fears of a rising China in the dustbin of history.

The quasi-alliance of these three powers has serious implications for the international system, and its major underwriter, the U.S., depending on how the challenge is handled. But an equally important, and quite unintended implication, is the sabotage of China’s great power ambitions. By robbing China of its claims to represent developing countries, this new cooperative trio could sideline China from the major debates in international affairs. That may be good news for domestic reform in China, which has long been stunted by the country’s great power ambitions.

The origins of the India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue Forum (IBSA) lie in South Africa’s quest for a new allies more consonant with its interests and ideas following the end of apartheid in 1994. The immediate impetus came from Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who floated a formal cooperation scheme in early 2003. In June of that year, the foreign ministers of the three countries inaugurated the group in Brasilia, calling for a strengthening of international institutions to address the concerns of developing countries in areas like poverty, the environment and technology. Since then, according to Sarah-Lea John de Sousa of Madrid’s FRIDE think tank, the trio has been gaining support as “spokesmen for developing countries at the global level.”

IBSA members note that they are “vibrant democracies” and Daniel Flemes of Hamburg-based German Institute for Global and Area Studies noted in a 2007 paper that “IBSA’s common identity is based on values such as democracy, personal freedoms and human rights.” Human rights, civil society, social empowerment and “gender mainstreaming” are central to their moral capital.

Indian and Brazilian diplomats in particular, already among the world’s best, can advance the IBSA agenda because they share common ideals.

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Mr. Lula goes to Washington

Lula is not only a political and diplomatic pro, but also a statesman. Amazingly, he comes off as more prepared than Obama with solid answers to reporter questions, with a sense of humor as well. Political leadership of this sort inspires business confidence in a country. Must watch link -
CSPAN Video- Pres. Obama & Brazilian President Lula’s press conference

What is brought up by a Brazilian reporter is the thorny trade issue of the US tariff on imported ethanol from Brazil. A policy that is not only bad economics, but bad morality – promoting corn-based ethanol in deference to the US domestic farm lobby that results in higher global food prices for corn-based foods.

Two other videos of Lula being interviewed that show his considerable skills no doubt honed from years as a union leader dealing with tough opponents. His incredible life story – going from a shoe-shine boy to Brazil’s president, is one that needs more press coverage outside Latin America.

Frost Over The World – President Lula – 08 Jun 07

Soundbite Central: President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
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Mercosur Shares Social Concerns, Diverges on Economy

Politicians, stuck in an industrial era mindset, love to “protect jobs” since that plays well among interest groups like unions, while they completely neglect skill-building, the key to not only citizens being eligible for many jobs in the knowledge era, but also in a position to create jobs as entrepreneurs.

Unlike someone who has been a freight elevator operator on a construction site (inside source: on chicago construction sites, a $70,000+ salary), shielded from reality by a union contract, a person like Ronaldinho whose skills with a soccer ball are superhuman, doesn’t need his “job” to be protected by Lula. With skills like that, he can get a “job” at any top European club. Clubs he’s had a job with include Gremio, PSG, FC Barcelona and now, AC Milan.

I am amazed at how the private insurance markets have not been tapped to provide for “occupational loss insurance” in many countries. It makes more sense for government to subsidize individual contributions to those types of policies than protect particular jobs.

Modeled on long-term disability insurance,  the payments can cover 60-70% of salary for upto 2 years worth of job loss and the necessary retraining. Employees can choose to supplement this salary by purchasing additional coverage.

In the example below, it is better to beef up the employee safety net than provide blanket company loan guarantees.

IPSNEWS:

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva highlighted the formalisation of preferential tariff agreements between Mercosur and India, and Mercosur and the Southern Africa Customs Union (comprising Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland), as well as the expansion of the trade agreement with Chile to include services, as is also being pursued with Colombia.

The creation of a fund to guarantee loans taken out by small and medium companies, set up to stimulate this sector especially in Paraguay and Uruguay, is part of Brazil’s commitment to “strengthening the smaller economies,” said Lula, who announced that in 2009 “Brazil will double its contribution to FOCEM” (the Mercosur Structural Convergence Fund), created in 2005 to mitigate the asymmetries within the bloc.

“Protecting jobs and social inclusion”
(??) was a concern expressed by several of the presidents, in the context of a crisis which, in Lula’s view, reflects the “perversions of the dominant economic system.”

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Avoiding a Financial Collapse, Indian-Style

One of the most outrageous example of lax U.S. lending practices was someone making $14,000 a year approved for a $720,000 mortgage with no down payment!
NYTimes.com

“In India, we never had anything close to the subprime loan,” said Chandra Kochhar, the chief financial officer of India’s largest private bank, Icici. (A few days after I spoke to her, Ms. Kochhar was named the bank’s new chief executive, in a move that had long been anticipated.) “All lending to individuals is based on their income. That is a big difference between your banking system and ours.” She continued: “Indian banks are not levered like American banks. Capital ratios are 12 and 13 percent, instead of 7 or 8 percent. All those exotic structures like C.D.O. and securitizations are a very tiny part of our banking system. So a lot of the temptations didn’t exist.”

Part of the reason is cultural. Indians are simply not as
comfortable with credit as Americans.
“A lot of Indians, when you push
them, will say that if you spend more than you earn you will get in
trouble,” an Indian consultant told me. “Americans spent more than they
earned.”

Mr. Parekh said, “Savings are important. Joint families
exist. When one son moves out, the family helps them. So you don’t
borrow so much from the bank.” Even mortgage loans tend to have down
payments in India that are a third of the purchase price, a far cry
from the United States, where 20 percent is the new norm.

But there was also another factor, perhaps the most important of all.
India had a bank regulator who was the anti-Greenspan. His name was Dr. Y.V. Reddy, and he was the governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Unlike Alan Greenspan,
who didn’t believe it was his job to even point out bubbles, much less
try to deflate them, Mr. Reddy saw his job as making sure Indian banks
did not get too caught up in the bubble mentality.

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A free lunch for you is a painful cost for someone else

Special interest groups lobby politicians to receive benefits from the governmental treasury while diffusing costs on societies. Politicians are happy to comply since their elections and re-elections usually depend on funding from these groups.

In rich countries or regions, they can get away with economically unsound policies. (EU’s CAP) But, in countries like India and others in LatAm these types of policies have disastrous social consequences. In India, many farmers have access to free electricity. So, they leave irrigation pumps pumps on all the time draining the water table and depriving others in the same region of water.

Also, special interests like farmers can quickly rally their members say by blockading roads and driving their tractors around the state and country capitals if there is any hint of reducing subsidies to their cause. This makes for compelling TV and governments typically recant on any reduction or elimination of the subsidy. Fish do not vote for sushi bars.

This quote attributed to Alex Tytler is telling: “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.”
Times Online

Children live in a fantastical world where Barbie dolls and trips to the zoo can be delivered without depriving their parents of something they might have enjoyed, such as a bottle of wine or a few extra hours off work.

Learning that cost-free transfers are impossible is an important part of growing up, and parents usually make sure it happens quickly. Most of us learn that there is no such thing as a free lunch long before we have ever picked up a bill.

Except when it comes to public policy. Encouraged by politicians, many adults indulge the infantile fantasy that the Government can bestow gifts on us while imposing costs on no one.

When it comes to bearing costs, there are no companies or markets or other aggregations of people. Costs are always borne by individuals.

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Roadmap for the G20

RGE 

President Bush has invited the heads of state of the Group of 20 (G20) nations for a summit on November 15 in an effort to continue responding in a coordinated way to the unfolding financial and economic crisis.  The G20group, which accounts for 90% of global GDP, includes 10 major emerging economies – including Brazil, China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa among others, along with members of the G8, Australia and the European Union.

Reaching a consensus on international regulatory reform will likely be one of the key issues at the meeting. While the 27 EU leaders earlier failed to agree on a joint economic strategy to tackle the coming recession in Europe, the member countries worked out a joint five-point action plan for the G-20 with the following very specific proposals:
1) Submit rating agencies to registration and surveillance, especially with a view to credit ratings’ prominent role within the Basel II capital requirement framework.
2) Adopt principles to ensure the ‘convergence of accounting standards’.
3) Decide that no market segment, no territory and no financial institution should escape regulation or at least oversight.
4) Establish codes of conduct to avoid excessive risk-taking in the financial sector, including on the ‘remuneration’ of executives.
5) Give the IMF the ‘initial responsibility’ and ‘necessary resources’ for ‘recommending the measures to restore confidence and stability’ in the international financial system.

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The Cost of a Long Life

Compelling graphic that demonstrates that throwing more money at problems does not always ensure better outcomes.

The Cost of a Long Life

Life Expectancy around the world

via UCSC

The chart highlights the sharp contrast between the US and Cuba. With a life expectancy of 76.9 years, Cuba ranks 28th in the world, just behind the US. However, its spending per person on health care is one of the lowest in the world, at $186, or about 1/25 the spending of the United States. There are other cases where high life expectancies are achieved with low spending on health care.

Another reason some countries achieve high life expectancy with low health spending is that clean drinking water and preventive health care can be provided with little spending. If there is near universal clean water and preventive care, life expectancy rates can be high. In the US, however, nearly 40 million Americans lack basic health insurance, and are therefore less likely to receive preventive care.  In contrast, Cuba has universal health care and one of the highest doctor-to-patient ratios in the world (See Physicians).  Although Cuba has limited resources and many economic problems, it has made health care a priority. It is not alone. Sri Lanka, China and the Indian State of Kerala are considered “low-income, high well-being” countries, which have adopted policies that not only reduce inequality but also increase overall health and well-being.

Money spent at hospitals and doctors counts towards ‘economic growth’, by getting included in GDP stats, but is terrible as an indicator for human well-being.

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Can India’s Dairy Revolution be Repeated in Africa?


World Bank – News & Broadcast

During a period of 25 years (1970-1996), a unique program, popularly known as Operation Flood, transformed a chronically milk-deficient India into the largest producer of milk and milk products in the world.

Can this phenomenal turnaround-which has since become the stuff of legend-happen elsewhere? When can the experience in one country be replicated in another?

Under a new multi-donor trust fund, practitioners from the small town of Anand in the state of Gujarat are visiting Tanzania and Uganda to demonstrate first-hand how to replicate India’s “white revolution.”

This innovative exchange of practical experience is being funded through the South-South Experience Exchange Facility, officially launched by World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick during the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings.

“In their quest to accelerate growth and improve living standards, policy makers in the developing world are constantly in search of innovative ideas. They see the experiences of their counterparts in emerging economies as increasingly relevant,” says Zoellick.

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