Latin America’s impressive little guys: Uruguay and Paraguay

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beyondbrics | FT.com

Talk about Latin America’s rising stars and the focus is often on Peru or Colombia. But don’t overlook the little countries: Paraguay and Uruguay are punching above their weight – and both have just been upgraded by rating agency Standard’s & Poor’s.

That’s a tribute to their economic performance: Uruguay rode out the global crisis without recession, while Paraguay is growing at its fastest rate in 30 years. Both are also catching the attention of some foreign corporate investors.

After 2.9 per cent growth in 2009, Uruguay is now on course for 6.5 per cent this year. S&P has moved its sovereign debt rating to double B minus. That’s within two notches of investment grade, which is what Uruguay lost in 2002 during an economic crisis that spilled over from neighbouring Argentina. Its president, José Mujica, wants to regain [investment grade] status before his term ends in 2014.

Uruguay last month hosted a business promotion seminar organised by the Council of the Americas, whose president, Susan Segal, said US investors were looking with interest at agriculture, biotechnology and technology exchange opportunities in the Atlantic-coast country. Uruguay sees natural resources as key to future growth: it is already exploiting a gap in the market left by declining Argentine beef production, and is seeking to develop what it believes are large offshore hydrocarbons resources. But Mujica has also appealed for young people to “fall in love with maths and scientific analysis” to lay the foundations for a tech-savvy future.

Paraguay, a landlocked country whose population is unique in Latin America by still speaking the language of its Indian ancestors, Guaraní, is also emerging as a promising investment destination. Rio Tinto Alcan is planning to invest $2.5bn in an aluminium smelter. To give a sense of the project’s scale, the investment is equal to virtually half the reserves of the central bank. What’s more, Paraguay’s economy is on fire – set to grow at around 9 per cent this year, a 30-year-high according to Gabriel Torres, analyst at Moody’s Investor Service.

Central bank reserves have doubled in the last three years and political stability has increased under the presidency of Fernando Lugo, who took office in 2008 after 61 years of one-party rule.

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India’s Interest in Latin America/South America must go beyond World Cup: Not just football superpowers, agriculture superpowers as well

Note: an abbreviated version of this article titled “India’s Interest in Latin America must go beyond World Cup” was syndicated by Indo-Asian News Wire Service. A few portals that ran the article include: SIFY, TradeIndia, IndiaNewsPost, ThaIndian, SouthAsiaMail, ProKerala, Gulf Times, Qatar and the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs.

Over the next few weeks, millions of Indians, like their compatriots around the world, will be glued to the television, cheering for their favorite World Cup teams. Among the South American teams are traditional favorites, Brazil and Argentina. But other teams from the region include Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile. All these countries are football superpowers, with a long history of producing players who dazzle with their stylish play: eyes-in-the-back-of-the-head passing, bicycle kicks, dancing and dribbling past three or more defenders before scoring. The names of Messi, Kaká, Tévez and Forlán will echo off fans’ lips well after the finals.

In India, meanwhile, fever for those South American fútbol stars tends to fade once the games are over. Yet there is an important reason why enthusiasm for South America should persist beyond the World Cup: The Mercosur trade bloc of countries – Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay are the world’s emerging agriculture superpowers. They are already shipping their tremendous surpluses worldwide and, as agriculture outsourcing hubs, have the potential to meet India’s food needs in the coming decades.

South American surpluses, especially in oilseeds, pulses and sugar, will feed the growing food deficits in much of Asia, with shrinking arable land and expanding populations.

First some geographical context, since South America – unlike Canada and the United States – generally doesn’t appear on the Indian radar. Brazil is three times the size of India. It is even larger than the continental United States. Yet its population is about that of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Argentina is nearly the size of India, with a population equivalent to New Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. Uruguay, sandwiched between Brazil and Argentina, is about the size of either Karnataka or Gujarat, three and a half times the size of Punjab, yet it holds less than half the population of Bangalore or Ahmedabad.

Flying from India to cities like Buenos Aires, Montevideo or Sao Paulo, located in the South Atlantic seaboard, is quicker than getting to California. All these Mercosur countries lie in the tropical and temperate latitudes where a wide range of crops can be grown, outside the zones of hurricanes, earthquakes or volcanoes.
What makes the agribusiness fundamentals so great in these countries?

  1. Farmland is abundant, and scale farming on parcel sizes of more than 1000 hectares the norm. Many farms are 4000 hectares and larger. The soil quality is extremely good. Soybean yields, for example, are 3 to 4 tons per hectare; corn yields range from 5 to 12 tons per hectare; and rice yields total more than 7 tons per hectare.
  2. While crop yields are at least two to three times greater than those in India, the cost of farmland is only a fraction of Indian prices. Most farmland comes with clean property titles.
  3. Agribusiness is well developed, analogous to the IT sector in India. A large pool of qualified agronomists – experts in soil science and management – conducts ongoing research in the most effective and efficient farm practices. Argentina introduced the technology of direct-seeding, which improves soil and moisture conservation, and which other nations now use. Harvard has selected leading South American agribusiness models as case studies in its own research.
  4. The Mercosur countries use the same or similar cutting-edge farm machinery and technology – the “no-till drill,” for example – found in the United States, Europe and Australia. A network of service providers assists with planting, harvesting and other aspects of the farming process. Logistics and supporting transport infrastructure are well developed.
  5. Agribusiness remains in private-sector hands; governments provide no farm subsidies. In some instances, the government taxes agriculture revenue; yet farming remains a profitable activity. So there is an ongoing imperative for innovation and efficiency to sustain the profitability.
  6. All the Mercosur countries have abundant fresh water, with networks of streams, lakes and perennial rivers. Rainfall occurs predictably throughout the year, which means there is little, if any, necessity for groundwater pumps.
  7. South America has 26 percent of the world’s freshwater and just 5 percent of the world’s population. Population growth rates are below replacement rates, so over the next 40 years, there will be little demographic pressure on water resources.

With these advantages, the Mercosur countries enjoy large agriculture export surpluses and ship 60 to 90 percent of their annual production to such countries as China, Vietnam, Korea and Japan. India imports their grains, edible oils and sugar.
On the socioeconomic front, Mercosur countries are democracies, with relatively little ethnic, religious or racial conflict. Cultural values, such as emphasis on family and relationships, resemble those in India. Indians will find a good business fit while operating in these countries. The Mercosur governments are dedicated to attracting responsible foreign investment and industry.

In South America, various combinations of buy/lease farming options are available, and annual financial returns can exceed 20 percent or more. In addition, farm portfolio managers in South America (akin to financial portfolio managers) can manage an agriculture operation for a fixed fee per hectare, plus a share of the profits. This would suit those Indian investors who know nothing about farming but do care about output and returns, and don’t want to deal with purchasing equipment or hiring personnel. Indian agrochemical companies like United Phosphorus and Excel Crop Care, and farm equipment players like Mahindra are reaping rewards from the South American agriculture market.

It is a fact that India’s domestic production cannot keep pace with the growing demands for more and better-quality food. It is time that Indian companies and investors look at South America for “backward integration” into farming operations. To use a World Cup analogy, it’s time to score goals for India’s food needs.

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Venezuela’s bid to join Mercosur

For those who might be unaware, Mercosur is a regional trade agreement between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. It is somewhat comparable to NAFTA, though there are some significant differences. Recently, Venezuela has been actively trying to join Mercosur, but before it can, all four member countries have to give their approval. So far the all have given their approval except Paraguay, though there has been some controversy in other countries over admitting Venezuela while Chavez is still in charge. In Paraguay, criticism of Chavez’s action against opposition parties has delayed the approval process.

Now, the leading candidate for the Brazilian Presidency, José Serra, has expressed some of his own concerns over Venezuela’s entry. From MercoPress:

“I want to say something, I think it’s great, very good for me that (Hugo) Chávez should support Ms. (Dilma) Rousseff [Serra's opponent in the presidential elections],” said José Serra talking to Brazilian reporters in Rio Grande do Sul, but warned that this is not positive for Mercosur “because his incorporation would only weaken and discredit Mercosur.”

Serra said that “as we all know, this gentleman likes to persecute and shut down all media that does not support him. Let us not forget also that Mr. Chavez could have won many elections but his debut in politics was as leader of a bloody military coup,” underlined Serra. “Only later was he elected”.

The opposition candidate that leads in public opinion polls went further and said that “not reforming or reviewing Mercosur endangers its very existence. To admit a new full member in Mercosur for political reasons is simply not believable and not acceptable”.

Serra also insisted that the voting system inside Mercosur had to be reviewed. “In the European Union, with a long experience of integration, the country with the largest GDP and most population has a greater participation in the voting scheme; on the contrary in Mercosur all members have the same vote.” This limits Brazil’s international trade policies and “must be reviewed.” Imagine “if Venezuela finally makes it into Mercosur—which is madness—it would have the same vote as Brazil; it’s quite senseless,” said Serra.

The former governor of São Paulo said that Mercosur should aim to become a free trade zone, (instead of a common market) but gave to timetable to achieve such a goal.

India and Latin America: Water Scarcity vs. Abundance

Water resources compared across India and LatAm's Southern Cone

Source: Aquastat, Year 2005

Indian oil firms eye land in Paraguay, Uruguay and Myanmar to grow crops

Money Matters – livemint.com

Some of the country’s top vegetable oil firms plan to lease or buy land in Paraguay, Uruguay and Myanmar to grow oilseeds and lentils as farmland shrinks in the South Asian nation, a top trade official said on Tuesday.

Despite being the world’s second biggest grower of rice and wheat and the leading importer of vegetable oils after China, India has recently been pinched by rising global food prices.
Policymakers fear climate change could squeeze the amount of land available to farmers even further.

“We have formed a consortium of 14 vegetable oil companies, which is in talks with the governments of Paraguay, Uruguay, and Myanmar for buying large tracts of land for cultivating soya bean, sunflower and pulses,” Ashok Sethia, president of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, said.

India consumes 18 million tonnes (mt) of lentils and imports from
Myanmar, Tanzania, Australia, Canada and Ukraine to bridge a shortfall
of about 4mt of the food.
It also imports almost half of the
11mt or so of edible oil it consumes
, and buys palm oil from Malaysia
and Indonesia and soya oil from Brazil and Argentina.
Sethia said some importers were buying oil palm plantations in Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer.
“Growing
rice and wheat overseas does not seem feasible. Growing oilseeds and
lentils is. Do not be surprised to see more of this in the days to
come
,” he said.

Brazilian Minister Acknowledges Asymmetries in Mercosur

– Business – redOrbit

interview with Minister Marco Aurelio Garcia, special adviser to the Brazilian President’s Office on international affairs,

[Agencia Brasil] Thanks to the strengthening of the Brazilian economy and currency, our firms are expanding their business into the South American countries and expanding their industries into new markets. How do you view that process?

[Garcia] I view it as a positive factor, especially since we have two problems here. We currently have very unbalanced trade relations in Brazil’s favour. We have a trade balance surplus with every country in the region except Bolivia (because of the gas imports). This shows that trade relations often do not resolve the asymmetries existing between the South American economies; on the contrary, they even make them worse. One way in which we can compensate for that – aside from the multilateral mechanisms such as funds, infrastructure programmes, and financing that Brazil has been providing for the construction of public works in those countries – is precisely in the area of investments. And to a large extent, Brazil is being sought out to stimulate the countries that need investments.

[Agencia Brasil] Are there specific areas preferred by Brazil and its partners?

[Garcia] That depends greatly on the country. There are investments in the areas of petroleum, gas, and mining. Petrobras is present today in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru. We have mining companies such as the Rio Doce Vale Company, and we have a strong presence in the industrial area, and that is in our interest because one way to establish a more balanced relationship with the countries in the region is to help them move forward with an industrialization process – whether complementary to our industries or those of Argentina or on their own. Brazil has been greatly stimulating the industrial and agricultural development of Venezuela.

[Agencia Brasil] Does the model being designed by the Brazilian Government involve greater economic integration?

[Garcia] That is at least the movement that we have been trying to encourage. Our economy is a market economy; it is possible for us to stimulate investments – to guide them – but not to say where a particular factory is going to go. But government policies are fundamental on that point.

[Garcia] We are financing a tripartite public works project by Brazil, Bolivia, and Chile that would make it possible to open a road from Porto Alegre through Argentina to Chile. That will completely alter Pacific-Atlantic integration. Brazil has also opened an extremely important line of credit for the Bolivia Northward project and is prepared to finance the power transmission line from Itaipu to Asuncion in Paraguay.

[Garcia] Paraguay is a country with sizable agriculture, and we can provide agricultural cooperation. I have the impression that in Paraguay, the essential thing is to know whether the Paraguayans want to develop an industrial programme for their country. They have a very important asset, which is electricity: they have the highest amount of electricity per capita in the world. A big share of that electricity is exported, but it could be shifted to Paraguayan industry. I am sure there would be interest on the part of Brazilian businessmen, and a number of Brazilian firms are getting ready to announce investments there in the area of capital goods. I feel there is a possibility of that being extended to other sectors such as consumer goods for the domestic market and also for export. Another subject we have been discussing there even longer is the biofuel industry. It would be perfectly easy for them to begin producing ethanol and biodiesel.


[Garcia] Brazil has
signed a new automotive agreement with Argentina.
For the first time in
a long time, it is a six-year agreement, meaning that it creates
stability. The previous agreements were annual, so they had little
impact. Under this six-year agreement, one of the first effects we are
noting is that Argentina has now resumed its automobile production,
although it has lost many auto parts companies in recent years.
It is
possible, however, that the auto parts industry will come back because
that agreement, being of six years duration, has a number of potential
effects on the automotive industry. We accept that. The agreement will
be extended to Paraguay and Uruguay.
This means we would have the
possibility of seeing to it that Paraguay and Uruguay also share in
that division of labour.

Garcia] It establishes very favourable conditions for the process of
reindustrializing Argentina. The Brazilian automobile industry has
accepted it. To give you an idea, many companies that were in Cordoba
(Argentina) moved to Brazil, but they may very well return. Moreover,
we have the possibility of making Paraguay and Uruguay part of it. We
were talking to the Argentine minister about the possibility of
beginning a process of integration with the Argentine aeronautical
industry based on very sizable purchases that Argentina will make from
Embraer (Brazilian Aeronautics Company). Argentina’s aeronautical
industry was very important in the past.

Paraguay moves up food chain

FT.com / World / Americas

Take record commodities prices, add a subtropical climate that gives farmers five harvests every 24 months and vast tracts of virgin arable land and it is no surprise that tiny Paraguay has emerged as one of the big beneficiaries of the global food crisis.

The International Monetary Fund reckons the country, whose history of poverty and entrenched corruption usually bills it as one of the world’s economic losers, has gained more from soaring food prices in terms of the boost to its trade balance than any other nation.

The fund estimates that food price rises in 2007-08 increased Paraguay’s trade balance by 12.2 per cent of its 2005 GDP, the only country worldwide to have a double-digit increase.

The IMF calculations do not factor in currency fluctuations and the escalating price of fertilisers and fuel. But they illustrate how often-overlooked Latin American countries such as Paraguay, Guyana and Uruguay have the potential to help feed the world while reaping big rewards for their underdeveloped economies.

Soyabeans are transforming Paraguay’s finances. The landlocked country is the world’s fourth largest soyabean exporter; production has nearly doubled in two years and the crop helped boost exports 77 per cent in 2007. Indeed the economy grew by 6.4 per cent last year, the highest rate in two decades.

“We think that if the current world situation continues, we could easily see [agricultural] investment of $3bn to $5bn [€3.4bn, £2.7bn] in the next five years,” says Christian Thielmann of Paraguay’s export promotion agency Rediex.

He says Argentine, Brazilian and Uruguayan investors are showing big interest in farming, livestock and forestry, attracted by tax breaks on machinery imports and a corporate rate of 10 per cent.

After a serious drought two years ago, soyabean production leapt to 6.8m tonnes in 2008 from 3.6m tonnes in 2006, according to the Paraguayan Chamber of Cereals and Oilseeds Exporters. “But it could reach 15m-18m in the next few years,” says Germán Ruíz, vice-president of Paraguay’s Rural Association.

Corn, sunflower and canola production also nearly tripled between the 2004/05 and 2006/07 seasons and wheat has risen, though more slowly. Héctor Cristaldo, president of a confederation of farm unions, sees “massive migration” out of cotton, a traditional staple, into sesame, a new cash crop that is entirely exported to Japan and Korea, raising vital revenues for a country where GDP per capita is just $4,500.


Uruguay – already the world’s seventh largest rice exporter, with no state subsidies but with yields that farmers say beat those in the US – is finding important new markets as world stocks decline and bigger producers restrict exports or increase tariffs to curb domestic food inflation.

“Europe, Iran, Iraq, Brazil and Peru don’t have enough supplies. Any would be prepared to buy more from Uruguay,” says Alfredo Crossa, president of Casarone, Uruguay’s second-largest rice miller. “We’re also developing sales to eastern Europe and the Caribbean.”

He says Uruguay, which exports 90 per cent of its rice, is on course to boost its 1.4m tonnes production by 20 per cent this year. With investment in irrigation, output could reach 2m tonnes in five years if prices stay high, he says.

Octacilio Echenagucía, president of the Rural Federation, forecasts a 50 per cent rise in Uruguay’s soyabean cultivation this year.

In Guyana, rainforest cloaks much of the country and only 2 per cent of land is devoted to agriculture, chiefly rice and sugar. Yet farming already brings in a third of export earnings and accounts for more than a third of GDP, which is just $3,900 per capita.

The agriculture ministry is forecasting that higher yields and rice prices will boost export earnings by a third this year.

“Bishop of the poor” is Paraguay’s new president

The Observers

As for Paraguay’s new president, he advocates a “theological liberation of the Left”. He’s worked in the country’s poorest parishes and enjoys the reputation of being an honest man, a particularly important asset in a country where politics have become synonymous with corruption. Fernando Lugo said he would not marry during his five-year mandate, despite the Pope having lifted his vow of chastity. His sister will therefore act as the country’s first lady. The new president has also sought the advice of recognised experts, including the US Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.

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