Promoting India Latin America Collaboration

Latin America’s new promise…and why India should pay attention


Nobody’s backyard | The Economist

look beyond the headlines, and, as our special report shows, something remarkable is happening in Latin America. In the five years to 2008 the region’s economies grew at an annual average rate of 5.5%, while inflation was in single digits. The financial crisis briefly interrupted this growth, but it was the first in living memory in which Latin America was an innocent bystander, not a protagonist. This year the region’s economy will again expand by more than 5%. Economic growth is going hand in hand with social progress. Tens of millions of Latin Americans have climbed out of poverty and joined a swelling lower-middle class. Although income distribution remains more unequal than anywhere else in the world, it is at least getting less so in most countries. While Latin American squabbling politicians blather on about integration, the region’s businesses are quietly getting on with the job—witness the emerging cohort of multilatinas.

Brazil, the region’s powerhouse, is the cause of much of the excitement. But Chile, Colombia and Peru are growing as handsomely and even Mexican society is forging ahead, despite the drug violence and the deeper recession visited on it by its ties to the more sickly economy in the United States.

Two things lie behind Latin America’s renaissance. The first is the appetite of China and India for the raw materials with which the continent is richly endowed. But the second is the improvement in economic management that has brought stability to a region long hobbled by inflation and has fostered a rapid, and so far sustainable, expansion of credit from well-regulated banking systems. Between them, these two things have created a virtuous circle in which rising exports are balanced by a growing domestic market.

Latin America Tourism

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Brazil on the Rise

Here at IndusLatin we recently highlighted the growing role of cities like Mumbai, India, and São Paulo, Brazil, as international financial centers. The NY Times has just drew attention to a few recent developments in Brazil that indicate that this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon. Here are some key facts from the article:

  • A Brazilian-backed investment firm just acquired Burger King, further securing Brazil’s place as an ascendent global commercial leader
  • The number of millionaires in Brazil jumped nearly 70 percent, to 220,000, from 130,000, between 2006 and 2008
  • JBS Friboi, a Brazilian company, butchers and packages 8 percent of the world’s beef

The article further emphasizes that Brazil is an increasingly dominant world player in the food and agriculture industries, and with growing fears over the world’s food supply, Brazilian agriculture is looking like a solid investment.

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Drive: The surprising truth about what motivates us

YouTube – RSA Animate –

Brilliant!

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Buy Farmland and Soft Commodities like sugar, cotton:How to Invest Like Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers again talking about how depressed agriculture commodities are relatively to others which have boomed recently and that is where investors should look. (Sugar is still off 70% of its all-time high reached in 1974, Wheat – he doesn’t mention it, is at 200 yr lows, in inflation-adjusted terms.)

TheStreet.com

Jim Rogers, legendary contrarian investor, author and chairman of Rogers Holdings, is still betting on $2,000 gold in 10 years and in the meantime is looking to profit from China, the euro and other commodities.
Aside from the precious metals that we talked about, what other commodities do you like?

Rogers: Agriculture still. Agriculture’s still very depressed. Frequently, one will make a lot of money if you buy the things that are depressed [and] where things might be getting better.

So what happens to the world economy as you see it?

Rogers : We’re certainly going to have another recession in the next two or three years. We’ve had recessions every four to six years since the beginning of time. So by 2012, we’re getting ready to have another one, if history’s any guide. I suspect it will happen before then, because there are still so many imbalances in the world which have to be sorted out.

What’s the biggest positive and the biggest negative that you see in the big macro picture right now for the world economy?

Rogers: The gigantic debt imbalances. Throughout history, when you’ve had these kind of imbalances, they usually worked their way out in the currency market. It used to be the gold market when we had the gold standard. We’ve been seeing currency dislocations for two or three years. We’re [going to] see a lot more. Everybody who gets involved with you should learn about currency because we’re [going to] see many, many, many, more currency problems in the next two or three years. And that’s [going to] affect us all, including stock markets and including economies.

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Latin America: India’s next frontier

Latin America (orthographic projection)
Image via Wikipedia

I think the India-Latin America trade corridor is one of the last frontiers in business. India does more trade with Africa – 2-way flows about $40 billlion, which has  a fraction of the overall GDP($2,5Tn at PPP) compared to Latin America (almost $6Tn at PPP)  – 2-way flows about $16billion. So, the future potential is quite rosy.

via Latin Business Chronicle:

“We are very upbeat about Latin America and view it as the next frontier of growth,” says Harshul Asnani, head of Latin America and US West operations for BPO company TechMahindra.

The rapid growth in IT and network spending, increased mobile/broadband penetration and large scale consolidation in the telecoms sector in Latin America offers “vast potential” for a specialized telecom-focused systems integrator like Tech Mahindra, he says.

Omar Momin, vice president of strategy and M&A at Godrej Industries, also sees strong Latin America potential. “There are tremendous opportunities in Latin America that fit in with our strategic objectives,” he says. “These emerging markets have characteristics and consumer demographics similar to India with significant middle of the pyramid populations. They also hold tremendous potential in terms of growth in the coming decade and give the Godrej Group an opportunity to serve the needs of Latin American consumers better.”

One of the reasons why India´s trade with Latin America is below potential is the inadequate attention Indian business have paid to this region in the past,” says R. Viswanathan, India’s ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay and his country’s top Latin America expert. “Now this is changing. [Indians] are impressed by the strength and resilience of Latin American markets which have withstood the U.S. crisis and are marching ahead despite the gloom in Europe.”

In terms of sectors, he predicts that Indian investment will grow in IT, agribusiness, mining and petroleum in the coming years.

Meanwhile, lighting products manufacturer Havells Sylvania is also looking at expanding. “We are open to new proposals and are looking at both organic and inorganic growth in Latin America [along the] lines …Havells in India has aggressively grown from year to year,” says Kapil Gulati, the Costa Rica-based general manager and director of the Americas for Havells Sylvania. “We plan to initiate assembly operations in a few countries.”

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Brazil’s growing international presence

The BBC recently had an optimistic profile of Brazil’s position on the world stage. The article argues that Brazil has been largely successful at putting its own house in order, and is increasingly seen as a strong force in the international arena as well.

Democracy and democratic institutions have been strengthened. At the same time, Brazil has enjoyed high levels of economic growth, the result of continuity in economic policy that saw inflation remain low and stable, the fiscal situation under control and a floating exchange rate.

Poverty has been significantly reduced, and 31 million Brazilians lifted into the middle class, which in turn has brought about a rapid expansion of the domestic consumer market.

Commercial liberalisation and the globalisation of Brazilian companies are indicative of how Brazil’s economy has modernised. Diversification in the industrial and service sectors has gone hand in hand with the growth of the agricultural sector, highly competitive and with a strong presence in international markets. Brazil today sees itself as a global trader.

Brazil’s nascent position of power in global politics is due in large part to its credibility on issues that affect the developing world, and its status as a leader with the BRIC countries.

Brazil’s voice cannot be ignored on issues of importance to the developed world, such as foreign trade, climate change, energy (biofuels and oil), food, water and human rights.

Then there is the emergence of the BRIC countries, as Brazil, Russia India and China are known, a grouping that has become one of the new players on the international scene in recent years.

Brazil’s traditional diplomatic involvement in multinational organisations has reinforced the image of the country as a builder of consensus, an “honest broker”.

International attention has also focused on Brazil’s ethnic and religious harmony and the role it plays as mediator in more troubled parts of South America.

The article ends on this positive note:

For these reasons, Brazil today, confident and assertive, is seeking to carve a role for itself outside South America as a regional power able to act well beyond its immediate borders…

What is clear is that Brazil’s voice is set to be heard ever louder on the world stage.

IndusLatin has long shared this optimistic view of Brazil and its potential as a world power.

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Venezuela’s bid to join Mercosur

For those who might be unaware, Mercosur is a regional trade agreement between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. It is somewhat comparable to NAFTA, though there are some significant differences. Recently, Venezuela has been actively trying to join Mercosur, but before it can, all four member countries have to give their approval. So far the all have given their approval except Paraguay, though there has been some controversy in other countries over admitting Venezuela while Chavez is still in charge. In Paraguay, criticism of Chavez’s action against opposition parties has delayed the approval process.

Now, the leading candidate for the Brazilian Presidency, José Serra, has expressed some of his own concerns over Venezuela’s entry. From MercoPress:

“I want to say something, I think it’s great, very good for me that (Hugo) Chávez should support Ms. (Dilma) Rousseff [Serra's opponent in the presidential elections],” said José Serra talking to Brazilian reporters in Rio Grande do Sul, but warned that this is not positive for Mercosur “because his incorporation would only weaken and discredit Mercosur.”

Serra said that “as we all know, this gentleman likes to persecute and shut down all media that does not support him. Let us not forget also that Mr. Chavez could have won many elections but his debut in politics was as leader of a bloody military coup,” underlined Serra. “Only later was he elected”.

The opposition candidate that leads in public opinion polls went further and said that “not reforming or reviewing Mercosur endangers its very existence. To admit a new full member in Mercosur for political reasons is simply not believable and not acceptable”.

Serra also insisted that the voting system inside Mercosur had to be reviewed. “In the European Union, with a long experience of integration, the country with the largest GDP and most population has a greater participation in the voting scheme; on the contrary in Mercosur all members have the same vote.” This limits Brazil’s international trade policies and “must be reviewed.” Imagine “if Venezuela finally makes it into Mercosur—which is madness—it would have the same vote as Brazil; it’s quite senseless,” said Serra.

The former governor of São Paulo said that Mercosur should aim to become a free trade zone, (instead of a common market) but gave to timetable to achieve such a goal.

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Three factors that can derail India’s growth

Rediff.com Business

Water

Freshwater withdrawal today by steel, cement, aluminium, fertiliser, paper and power sectors is equivalent to the total domestic water demand (around 42 billion cubic metres per annum).
Freshwater consumption (water that is lost through evaporation, products and wastes in industries) equals the total drinking and cooking water needs of India (5.6 billion cubic metres per annum). The difference between freshwater withdrawal and consumption is the wastewater discharged by industries, which pollutes our rivers, lakes and groundwater.

By 2030, freshwater withdrawal by these six sectors will increase by 40 per cent and freshwater consumption by more than three-fold. A three-fold increase in consumption means less water will be available downstream for other users.
There is already a growing conflict between industry and local communities on water scarcity and pollution. This will exacerbate in future.

Land

Currently, around 0.7 million hectares (ha) of land are occupied by these six sectors – 0.4 million ha to mine coal, iron ore, limestone and bauxite, and 0.3 million ha for the plants. In an 8 per cent growth trajectory, another 1-1.3 million ha will be required by these six sectors – which means the amount of land needed in the next 20 years will be far higher than what they have acquired in last 60 years.

It is important to understand that India has an adverse land-population ratio (per capita land availability is a mere 0.25 ha)

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Brazil’s crisis philosophy: Foreign currency reserves trump IMF credit lines

One reason for Brazil’s relative success at navigating the current economic crisis is that it maintains US $243 billion in foreign exchange reserves. These reserves have acted as a crisis fund, of sorts, for the Brazilian government. Brazil has been able to use the fund to avoid having to rely on credit lines from international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

From MercoPress:

The reserves gave the central bank credibility when it deployed a number of mechanisms to help exporters, the financial system and the foreign exchange markets to deal with the sudden liquidity crisis, he said, adding that some have been removed and others can continue to be withdrawn.

Brazil’s National Development Bank, or BNDES, will end its extraordinary funding to the Brazilian economy in June, but the private sector should be ready to take over, he said. “I think it’s about time to exit all the crisis structures,” Meirelles said.

He added that while multilateral credit lines can be complementary, the crisis showed there are two major problems. First, the IMF would struggle to cope with the sheer volume of demand, and secondly, that the need during the crisis was proven to be higher than had been expected.

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Brazil’s agricultural output expected to rise

Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse and a world leader in exports of soybeans, sugar, orange juice, and coffee. It is also one of the top producers and exporters of cotton, poultry, and beef. This trend of Brazilian dominance in agriculture seems poised to continue with an expected 8.5% increase in production for grains, legumes, and oilseeds, as well as a 1.5% increase in the amount of land currently under cultivation. Additionally, the coffee crop is expected to increase by 14.4% this year over last.

From MercoPress:

The production of grains, legumes and oil-seeds this year will be 8.5% greater than in 2009, according to the latest estimate. The previous estimate based on data from January indicated the total crop would reach 143.4 million tons.

Land under cultivation will grow by 1.5% compared with 2009, eventually reaching 47.9 million hectares, said IBGE.

The crop boost this year can be attributed mainly to the 17.4% increase in soybean production and 2.6% increase in corn.

Soybean is the chief crop production of Brazil, accounting for just under half of the total grain and oil seed output.

Soy, corn and rice, the three main crops, occupy 81.5% of all the cropland in the country.

Soybean production this year will reach 66.9 million tons, thanks to improved climatic conditions and the increase in the area under cultivation, while the corn harvest is forecasted in 52.4 million.

Brazil, the world’s top grower and exporter of coffee, will produce 2.8 million tons of beans this year which is 14.4% more by volume than last year.

These positive agricultural numbers bode well for Brazil’s overall economic output since agricultural revenues are a relatively high (compared to the Europe and the US) 6.5% of the country’s overall GDP.

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