Promoting India Latin America Collaboration

Three factors that can derail India’s growth

Rediff.com Business

Water

Freshwater withdrawal today by steel, cement, aluminium, fertiliser, paper and power sectors is equivalent to the total domestic water demand (around 42 billion cubic metres per annum).
Freshwater consumption (water that is lost through evaporation, products and wastes in industries) equals the total drinking and cooking water needs of India (5.6 billion cubic metres per annum). The difference between freshwater withdrawal and consumption is the wastewater discharged by industries, which pollutes our rivers, lakes and groundwater.

By 2030, freshwater withdrawal by these six sectors will increase by 40 per cent and freshwater consumption by more than three-fold. A three-fold increase in consumption means less water will be available downstream for other users.
There is already a growing conflict between industry and local communities on water scarcity and pollution. This will exacerbate in future.

Land

Currently, around 0.7 million hectares (ha) of land are occupied by these six sectors – 0.4 million ha to mine coal, iron ore, limestone and bauxite, and 0.3 million ha for the plants. In an 8 per cent growth trajectory, another 1-1.3 million ha will be required by these six sectors – which means the amount of land needed in the next 20 years will be far higher than what they have acquired in last 60 years.

It is important to understand that India has an adverse land-population ratio (per capita land availability is a mere 0.25 ha)

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Brazil’s agricultural output expected to rise

Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse and a world leader in exports of soybeans, sugar, orange juice, and coffee. It is also one of the top producers and exporters of cotton, poultry, and beef. This trend of Brazilian dominance in agriculture seems poised to continue with an expected 8.5% increase in production for grains, legumes, and oilseeds, as well as a 1.5% increase in the amount of land currently under cultivation. Additionally, the coffee crop is expected to increase by 14.4% this year over last.

From MercoPress:

The production of grains, legumes and oil-seeds this year will be 8.5% greater than in 2009, according to the latest estimate. The previous estimate based on data from January indicated the total crop would reach 143.4 million tons.

Land under cultivation will grow by 1.5% compared with 2009, eventually reaching 47.9 million hectares, said IBGE.

The crop boost this year can be attributed mainly to the 17.4% increase in soybean production and 2.6% increase in corn.

Soybean is the chief crop production of Brazil, accounting for just under half of the total grain and oil seed output.

Soy, corn and rice, the three main crops, occupy 81.5% of all the cropland in the country.

Soybean production this year will reach 66.9 million tons, thanks to improved climatic conditions and the increase in the area under cultivation, while the corn harvest is forecasted in 52.4 million.

Brazil, the world’s top grower and exporter of coffee, will produce 2.8 million tons of beans this year which is 14.4% more by volume than last year.

These positive agricultural numbers bode well for Brazil’s overall economic output since agricultural revenues are a relatively high (compared to the Europe and the US) 6.5% of the country’s overall GDP.

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Everyone Wants Security, As Farmland Prices Go Parabolic

Latin America price arbitrage exists in hi-quality farmland – prices ranging from $2000 to $3000 per acre in Uruguay and Paraguay, for ready to farm properties. The problem of feeding Asia exists no matter if the USD and EUR ultimately become worthless over the next 2 decades with massive money printing. Farmland prices will likely skyrocket this decade as people realize the ultimate scam of paper money and rush into assets that “cannot be printed”.
via BusinessInsider

The price of high quality farmland is now generally in the rage of $5,500 – $7,000 per acre in Iowa and $6,200 – $7,500 in Illinois.

“There was a dramatic jump in the last 60 days,” says Loyd Brown, the president of Hertz Farm Management. He says land prices have been rising since 2009, but the biggest increase has occurred in the last 2 months.

Brown sells land to farmers, investors and investment firms.
He noticed there was a steady and significant jump when, in a sequence of three auctions he held, land prices jumped up $500 per acre for top quality land.

Most of the buyers are farmers, around 60%-70% of the market, he says. The rest are investment firms and individuals. “Individual investors usually have a background in farming,” he says. He thinks prices are increasing because of low interest rates, the lack of good alternative investments and because a lot of people want tangible, conservative assets. “A lot of people just like buying something that produces food, fiber and fuel,” he said.

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Indian Companies See Growth Opportunities In Latin America

Latin America gets almost zero coverage in the Indian media, who is affliced with extreme ‘SouthAsianitis’ in their news coverage. Many Indian executives have never seen a visual of the region.  The occasional coverage is the annual carnaval in Rio, the World Cup every 4 years featuring plenty of LatAm teams, and the anti-yankee rants emanating from Venezuela and Cuba. From my experience, a number of Indian executives believe that Latin America is a disease-ravaged, war-torn place with a refugee problem! I have to disabuse them of this notion. Indian IT and pharma companies are also showing that this is far from the truth, and are the pioneers in opening these markets for further investment by Indian companies in other sectors.

Even from my experience in US media, Latin America is viewed through the composite lens of illegal Mexican immigration, the anti-Castro Florida lobby and narcotrafficking. As if nothing else exists. Latin American countries, with the exception of Chile, have not aggressively pushed positive P.R. to attract foreign investment. For a changes, here is a Canadian perspective on LatAm.
WSJ.com

More and more Indian companies are looking to do business in Latin America as they seek exposure to growing markets. The ties are also manifesting themselves on a policy level with trade agreements between India and South American countries picking up.

Like those of its Asian neighbor, Indian companies are seeing Latin America as a more secure investment destination, thanks to broadly stable government and economic policies. These markets are also increasingly becoming a potential lifeline as India deals with food shortages and droughts.

“In India, consumption is growing while the land is diminishing but here in Latin America we don’t have any such land-shortage problems,” said Rengaraj Viswanathan, India’s ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, who has been pushing for Indian companies to set up shop in the region.

Indian companies have invested around $9 billion in Latin America during the last several years
, according to Viswanathan, and “that number is just going to keep on growing.” The next step in this trend is the agribusiness side, market watchers say.

Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd. (532670.BY) late last year became the first [Indian] agribusiness to enter South America with its takeover of Brazilian Vale Do Ivai SA Acucar E Alcool. The company is eyeing more acquisitions in Brazil, the world’s top sugar producer.

India’s recent transformation from an exporter into an importer of sugar, thanks to rapidly rising domestic consumption, has caused many companies to look outside the country in order to maintain supplies. Ethanol, too, is growing in importance as some Indian states have set mandatory guidelines on ethanol in the fuel supply.It’s a similar case for edible oils, where demand is outstripping domestic production.

As markets stabilized in the last few months of 2009, a series of Indian companies affirmed their plans to increase their exposure to Latin America. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. which already has sizable operations throughout the region, said in September that it was eyeing several acquisition targets. And just recently at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Tech Mahindra Ltd.  Chief Executive Sanjay Kalra said his firm is “very interested” in mergers and acquisitions in Latin America. Information-technology companies see plenty of opportunity in the region using service centers to tap local customers and also to serve clients in a slowly rebounding U.S. economy.

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Agriculture Opportunities for India in Latin America – Speech at CII Partnership Summit

I was invited to speak at the CII Partnership Summit held in Chennai  at the session on New Trade Routes. I spoke on how Latin/South America is well-positioned as the world’s agriculture outsourcing hub, and can meet India’s needs for food security.  See video below:


The recent price rise in food items which has caused heartache and wallet-ache for many Indian households is a phenemenon that will worsen in the years ahead. The near quadrupling in the price of toor dal (split pigeon pea) over the last 3 years is only a trailer in the coming horror movie of spiraling food inflation. With Indian incomes forecast to rise over the next decades, food consumption will skyrocket. On the edible oil front, the annual additional deficit of 350,000 to 450,000 tons projected by the Solvent Extractors Association of India is the equivalent of every Indian eating an additional samosa or bhajji every year; this is an exponential increase in demand. The same is the case with pulses and other commodities.

Forgetting the recent blame game for rapid food price in India – accusing politicians, traders, speculators, hoarders for this recent food increase, the main reason has been prolonged underinvestment on the supply side of food production, because Indian farming has been a sector with terrible incentives. Not surprisingly, 45% of Indian farmers want to quit farming. Add to that rapidly falling water tables in North India – India’s bread basket, and erratic monsoons from climate change you have the recipe for domestic food output falling short of demand, repeatedly in the future.

Latin America can meet India’s food needs, a place where agriculture commands the status of IT in India, with the best brains and fortunes in that sector. Indian companies should join US, European companies who have realized this, and participate in the agri value chain there – investing in contract farming to agroinputs to food processing to logistics.

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India on verge of farm disaster: M.S. Swaminathan

India 364
Image by leetucker via Flickr

India was the leading economy of the world for much of the last 2000 years from wealth generated from agricultural surplus. As Jim Rogers says, India should be the greatest agricultural country in the world, not America, with great weather, soils, climate. But, government policies militate against farming as a lucrative profession with antiquated laws on farm holding limits and buying policies for output.

Indian farmers are political cannon fodder; once they are economically empowered politicians are redundant. So, farmers will continue to be kept in economic intensive care by the political class. It can be a long wait for any meaningful changes in farm policies.

Traveling through the farm areas of Latin America in Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina with great soils and weather help me imagine what a paradise, agricultural and otherwise, historic India with 50 million people over its current land area must have been. And farming in these Latin American regions is entirely in private sector hands and they are all export powerhouses. It is in these regions that Indian entrepreneurs should deploy capital for augmenting existing local agribusiness ventures or starting new ones. Priority areas include production of pulses and edible oils.

via The Economic Times.

MS Swaminathan, top farm scientist and one of the architects of India’s green revolution, has warned that the country would face a food crisis if agriculture and farmers were ignored.

“We are on the verge of a disaster. We will be in serious difficulty if food productivity is not increased and farming is neglected,” Mr Swaminathan said on the sidelines of the 97th Indian Science Congress being held here. “The future belongs to nations with grains and not guns. The current food inflation is frightening. If pulses, potatoes and onions are beyond the purchasing capacity of the majority, malnourishment will be a painful result,” he said.

“I want the government to act upon three major recommendations,” the Rajya Sabha member said. “It should change compensation laws as farmers do not have pay commissions like the sixth pay panel; attract youth to farming; and amend the Women Farmers’ Entitlement Act to allow women avail bank loans without their land as a collateral security .”

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Developing countries need $83 bn a year to feed 9.1bn people in 2050

 livemint.com

Primary agriculture investment needs include some $20 billion a year earmarked for crop production and $13 billion for livestock, the FAO said in a paper ahead of a forum on how to feed the world in 2050 it is due to hold on 12 Oct-13 Oct in Rome.

A further $50 billion a year would be needed for downstream services, such as storage and processing facilities, it said. Most of this investment would have to come from private investors: farmers buying seeds, fertilisers and machinery and businesses investing in processing facilities, the agency said.

On top of this, public investments are needed in agriculture research and development, in big infrastructure projects such as building roads, ports, storage and irrigation systems as well as into education and healthcare, the FAO said.

Up to $29 billion of the $83 billion projected annual net investments in agriculture would need to be spent in the two countries with the largest populations — India and China.

Sub-Saharan Africa would need about $11 billion, Latin America and the Caribbean region would require some $20 billion, the West Asia and North Africa $10 billion, South Asia $20 billion and East Asia $24 billion, it said.

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Northern India’s Vanishing Water


Add this to the potential causes for water wars. More reasons to consider agriculture outsourcing in Latin America to hedge risk as crop areas in Punjab shrink as a result.
via Science Daily

Using satellite data, UC Irvine and NASA hydrologists have found that groundwater beneath northern India has been receding by as much as 1 foot per year over the past decade – and they believe human consumption is almost entirely to blame.

More than 109 cubic kilometers (26 cubic miles) of groundwater disappeared from the region’s aquifers between 2002 and 2008 – double the capacity of India’s largest surface-water reservoir, the Upper Wainganga, and triple that of Lake Mead, the largest manmade reservoir in the U.S.

People are pumping northern India’s underground water, mostly to irrigate cropland, faster than natural processes can replenish it,
said Jay Famiglietti and Isabella Velicogna, UCI Earth system scientists, and Matt Rodell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

“If measures are not soon taken to ensure sustainable groundwater usage, consequences for the 114 million residents of the region may include a collapse of agricultural output, severe shortages of potable water, conflict and suffering,” said Rodell, lead author of the study and former doctoral student of Famiglietti’s at the University of Texas at Austin.

Study results will be published online Aug. 12 in the journal Nature.

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Brazil: Dancing through the economic crisis

Highlights from a summary article, part of a recent special report in the FT on Brazil.
FT.com / Reports –

This is the Brazil that finally, after years of unfulfilled promise, is catching the world’s attention – and sucking in foreign direct investment, while many rivals go without. It is a mature democracy with a diversified economy, a young, adaptable population revelling in increasingly stable employment and rising incomes. It is also a rising power in food and industrial commodities, a big future exporter of oil and home to the world’s fourth biggest derivatives and equities exchange.

Brazil, unlike Russia, India and China,… is also largely unthreatened by social, demographic or economic upheavals.
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Water Wars – Winners and Losers; Latin America a Winner, India a Loser

The agricultural output of India over the next 3 decades could be severely curtailed if water shortages are not addressed. The populist measure of giving Indian farmers free power has resulted in rapid depletion of groundwater supplies for agriculture. I saved Andy Mukherjee’s Bloomberg columns from 2 years go where he wrote about problems created from lack of wastewater treatment/underpricing of piped water and from a switch to biofuels.

The recent monsoon which has been below normal in India (June precipitation was the lowest in 80 years), have not only caused heartburn in agricultural circles, but also have led to fights breaking out in urban areas over access to reduced water supplies.

Going forward, India faces 2 serious challenges with water supplies for agriculture, both beyond its control:
1) Climate change is causing rapid melt in the Himalayan glaciers “suggesting that the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers that criss-cross the northern Indian plain may become seasonal rivers in the near future as a consequence of climate change with important ramifications for poverty and the economies in the region.” At least 400 million farmer livelihoods are at risk.

2) Plans to divert water from the Brahmaputa by the Chinese government to feed its parched western/northwestern regions. Even though this is denied in official circles, there is little doubt that this will not be carried out knowing the CCP’s penchant for grandiose-projects like Three Gorges and preventing rain from falling during the Olympic opening ceremony. Moreover, Tibet – China’s Water Tower
is also the source for the Ganges river’s 2 major tributaries – the Kosi and the Gandaki. Attempts to “bottle those rivers” by official apparatchiks cannot be ruled out. The consequences for Indian agriculture are too staggering to contemplate.

Bottomline: Lower riparian states like India, and Iraq as mentioned in a recent NYTimes article, besides various countries in the Middle East and Africa, are almost guaranteed losers in the coming wars over water.

And the, Winners: Fresh Water paradises like Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay – perfect candidates for being India’s Agricultural Outsourcing providers. South american rivers like Amazon, Orinoco, Sao Francisco, Parana, Paraguay and Magdalena rivers contain more than 30 percent of the earth’s surface water. Add to that the Guarani Aquifer – the world’s single biggest groundwater source.

It is worthwhile for executives in India’s food and agriculture sector to keep these considerations in mind as they make plans for future growth and business contingencies.

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