Promoting India Latin America Collaboration

India-Uruguay economic cooperation

March 22nd, 2011 Posted in India, Uruguay
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Recent meetings between high-level representatives from India and Uruguay have produced a number of positive results, including plans to increase cooperation in the agriculture, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automobiles, machineries, IT (link). Cooperation is also being negotiated for the renewable energy sector with a focus on wind energy (link).

“For Uruguay in its international insertion strategy, links with India are crucial since it is one of the emerging powers with a growing influence in the global context; this is why it is so important to increase trade, both ways, because currently it is insignificant and negative for Uruguay.” – Vice President of Uruguay, Danilo Astori (link).

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Brazil’s Rousseff signs energy accords in Argentina

January 31st, 2011 Posted in Argentina, Brazil, Energy
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Brazil and Argentina will cooperate on the construction of two new hydroelectric dams and two nuclear reactors as part of expanded energy cooperation between the two countries. From Reuters:

“We will continue to work to strengthen Mercosur and consolidate the customs union … and we will keep on fighting protectionism by rich countries and policies that distort foreign trade, including exchange rates,” she said.

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff signed energy cooperation agreements with her Argentine counterpart on Monday during her first official visit abroad since taking office.

South America’s two largest economies are growing briskly and their governments are working to ensure energy supply can keep pace with growing demand from industry and households and sustain long-term growth.

Rousseff and Argentine President Cristina Fernandez pledged to accelerate plans to build two hydroelectric dams on part of the Uruguay River that straddles their border. The Garabi and Panambi dams would have a capacity of 2,200 megawatts.

They also agreed to build two nuclear reactors for investigation purposes and exchange know-how on biofuels. Brazil is one of the world’s biggest ethanol producers and Argentina is a leading exporter of biodiesel made from soyoil.

“I’m sure the accords we’ve signed will prove fruitful,” Rousseff said in a speech at the presidential palace, vowing to boost bilateral ties and the Mercosur regional trade bloc.

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The Brazilian Economy is Humming Along

January 27th, 2011 Posted in Brazil, Economics - Indicators, Policy and Trends
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Despite the slow pace of the economic recovery in North America and Europe, Brazil has seen remarkable growth in the last few years. In 2010, Brazil created a record 2.52 million new jobs, well above the previous record of 1.61 million new jobs that was set in 2007.

From MercoPress:

Figures in Brazil show that 2.52 million new jobs were created last year, the Brazilian Labour Ministry reported.

The number surpassed the 1.61 million formal jobs the nation generated in 2007, which was the previous high until now, and contrasts with the 990,000 formal jobs created in 2009 when the country was still suffering the effects of the global economic crisis. This is the highest increase since the statistic began in 1992.

In the last two months of 2010, however, the number of layoffs was greater than the number of hirings and only created some 100,000 net new formal jobs, defined as positions with complete labour and social benefits.

The vigorous expansion of employment is attributed to the solid growth of the Brazilian economy in 2010, estimated at 7.3 percent, following the contraction of 0.6 percent in 2009.

While economists estimated that Brazil was going to end the year with 2.2 million new jobs, the Labour Ministry released a figure significantly higher.

Labour Minister Carlos Lupi said that with December’s results included, 15.04 million new formal jobs were generated in the country during the eight-year presidency of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who left office January 1.

The minister said that with the Brazilian economy forecast to keep up its good performance, Brazil is likely to create close to 3 million new jobs in 2011, the first year of the Dilma Rousseff government.

The increase in formal jobs in 2010 helped reduce the official unemployment rate to 5.7 percent last month, the lowest figure for December in the last eight years.

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Latin America, and Mercosur in particular, leading the global economic recovery

December 3rd, 2010 Posted in Economics - Indicators, Policy and Trends, Latin America
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Latin America, especially Mercosur, is leading the global economic recovery. The forecasted growth in GDP for Mercosur countries in 2011 is 7.5%, and for Latin America in general it’s 5.8%. From MercoPress:

“Things in Latinamerica have rolled much better than expected” in an international context which still faces some turbulences resulting from the prolonged slowdown which begun in late 2008, according to Joaquin Vial, BBVA chief economist for South America

Vial said that besides domestic demand, the booming international prices of commodities have attracted a massive inflow of capital and an overall appreciation of the region’s currencies.

Domestic demand stimuli was followed by a strong consumers and investors confidence reaction, together with a favourable evolution of employment, which helped to begin a gradual withdrawal of fiscal and credit incentives.

In this scenario the countries which currently have the best growth prospects are Paraguay, 10.1%; Uruguay, 8.8% and Peru, 8.5%. Argentina is poised to expand 8%; Brazil 7.5%; Panama, 6% while the only country that could end the twelve months with an economic contraction is Venezuela, probably 2.3%.

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India set to become second largest copper consumer, Chile to benefit

November 16th, 2010 Posted in Chile, Commodities, India
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Chile’s economic prosperity has been largely fueled by its copper mines, and since India’s demand for copper is expected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Chile’s commodity-exporting future is looking bright. From MercoPress:

COCHILCO, Chile’s copper commission, estimates that by the end of this decade, India’s demand for copper will rise from the current figure of 610,000 tons to between 2.4 million and 3.6 million tons annually.

Due to broad economic growth, India’s increased demand for copper is set to move the nation from sixth place in world consumption of copper to second, just behind China, which accounts for 34% of global copper production, or about 7 million tons.

India is expected to overtake the United States, Germany, South Korea and Japan with this increased consumption –nations whose copper demand today is greater than India’s, but still far behind China’s.

This sharp increase in demand is expected to have an effect on world copper prices.

“With India playing a growing role in the market, the price of copper in the long term would rise about 10%, which is to say, by 20 cents more for each pound,” explained COCHILCO economist Erik Heimlich.

India’s growth rate is also expected to surpass China’s in the next few years, Heimlich said. As a result, Heimlich predicts, “India should change its production structure from services toward more copper-intensive areas”.

Such a shift will allow development of both greater internal consumption, and larger manufacturing production for export.

Heimlich added that copper refinery operators in India had already begun contacting COCHILCO about establishing long-term relationships with Chilean copper producers to supply their growing needs.

Copper production, the principal driving force behind Chile’s economic strength, has brought the country high profits in recent years.

Copper prices Tuesday reached US$4.01 per pound, the highest since June 2008. The rising prices are rapidly approaching the all-time high in June 2008 of US$4.07 per pound.

So far, the average copper price for 2010 is US$3.32 per pound, with a monthly average of US$3.87 per pound.

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Brazil elects its first female president

November 1st, 2010 Posted in Brazil, Politics
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Congratulations to Dilma Rousseff, the first female president of Brazil! Ms. Rousseff is widely expected to continue the economic policies of her predecessor, Lula da Silva. From MercoPress:

President Lula da Silva’s handpicked candidate Dilma Rousseff won Brazil’s Sunday run-off becoming the first woman president to lead Latinamerica’s largest economy. Ms Rousseff promised to stick to policies that have lifted millions from poverty and made Brazil one of the world’s hottest economies.

Rousseff had 55.2% of valid votes compared to 44.8% for opposition candidate Jose Serra, with 91% of votes tallied, according to Brazil’s election authority.

An economist and former energy minister who leans left but has become more pragmatic over time, Rousseff had never run for elected office. Yet she received decisive support from Brazil’s wildly popular President Lula da Silva, who plucked her from relative obscurity to succeed him.

During Lula’s eight years in office, his stable fiscal policies and social programs helped lift 20 million Brazilians, or more than 10% of the population, out of poverty and another 25 million to join the ranks of lower middle class.

…

Rousseff who as a student was involved in guerrilla activities, vows to build on Lujla da Silva’s successes by upgrading Brazil’s roads system, schools and other infrastructure as the country prepares to host the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games.

She also seeks to exploit the country’s newfound offshore oil wealth and expand the state’s role in the energy sector while continuing to court private investment.

“Her government will focus primarily on solving Brazil’s bottlenecks,” Fernando Pimentel, a close adviser to her campaign, said in a recent interview.

Rousseff lacks Lula da Silva’s charisma, and she has shown limited interest in passing major economic reforms, such as an overhaul of Brazil’s onerous tax code, that many investors say are necessary to reduce the high cost of doing business.

…

Lula has acknowledged Rousseff lacks political experience but chose her because of her skill as a technocrat and administrator. He says those qualities will be critical over the next four years as Brazil tries to bring its infrastructure in line with its ambitions as an emerging world power.

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Brazilian and Indian economies on the rise

October 26th, 2010 Posted in Brazil, Economics - Indicators, Policy and Trends, India
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In 2011 Brazil is expected to surpass Italy to become the seventh largest economy in the world, and India is expected to move ahead of Spain. From MercoPress:

The research unit of The Economist is predicting that Brazil, the eighth largest economy of the world in 2009, with a nominal GDP of 1.5 trillion, followed by Spain, Canada, India and Russia, would continue in the same position during 2010.

However it is expected that in 2011 the largest Latin American economy will climb up to stand in seventh place in the ranking with a nominal GDP of just over 2 trillion. Thus, Brazil would regain the position it occupied in 1994 displacing Italy which it is not expected to reach 1.8 trillion in nominal output. Another European Economy that will surrender position among the largest economies in the world is Spain, being relegated to the 12th post because of the significant advance of Russia and India.

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Brazil’s Vale expects to remain on top

October 19th, 2010 Posted in Brazil, Commodities
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Vale Rio Doce, which is world’s biggest iron-ore miner, is optimistic about its chances of remaining on top, and has several large new projects in the pipeline, including a $12.6 billion nickel mine in the Brazilian state of Pará. From MercoPress:

Vale, which aims to become the biggest mining company in the world, doesn’t need to compete with rivals for assets because it has the highest-quality iron ore and a pipeline of other metals projects, Chief Executive Officer Roger Agnelli told investors in New York on Monday.

“Everybody is looking for assets, they are going after acquisitions and we are not going after acquisitions,” Agnelli said in a presentation. Vale is “very well positioned” after “quietly” buying assets in 2004 through 2006, he said.

Rio de Janeiro-based Vale will start six new projects this year including its Onca Puma nickel mine in Brazil’s Para state after spending $12.6 billion, according to a regulatory filing Monday. The company’s 7.9 million metric tons of nickel reserves put it above OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world’s biggest supplier, according to the presentation. Vale is also planning to expand production of minerals such as copper and fertilizers.

“We are the only mining company in the world that can double the capacity only with our own projects,” Chief Financial Officer Guilherme Cavalcanti said during the same event at the New York Stock Exchange.

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Brazil and India rated as preferred places to invest

September 28th, 2010 Posted in Brazil, India, Investing
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According to a recent Bloomberg poll, Brazil is tied with China as the most preferred place to invest, and India follows close behind in third place.

From Bloomberg:

The U.S. has fallen behind emerging markets in Brazil, China and India as the preferred place to invest, a Bloomberg survey shows, though the world’s largest economy still ranks highest of all major developed countries.

The U.S. ranked first three months ago in the last quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll. Along with the slipping perceptions of the U.S. markets in the most recent survey, conducted Sept. 16-17, poll respondents say the Federal Reserve is likely to take further steps to try to bolster the economy.

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Expanded cooperation between Mercosur and India

September 21st, 2010 Posted in India, Latin America
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In an effort to further increase trade between Mercosur and India, representatives from both sides will soon meet to expand the number of products covered by the Agreement on Fixed Tariff Preferences (AFTP).

From MercoPress:

“Teams from both sides have been meeting and we pledged to develop a list of new products to be included in the agreement in November this year,” Scindia told a press conference after the India-Brazil Business Meeting in Sao Paulo.

The Agreement on Fixed Tariff Preferences (APTF) between India and Mercosur comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay entered into force in 2009, aiming at creating a free trade area.

The APTF agreement, which currently covers import and export of 452 products, is to gradually increase the categories of products with special taxation.

The extension of the agreement will be of strategic importance to boost trade relations between the countries involved, Scindia said.

Trade volume between Mercosur and India should reach 17 billion US dollars in 2012 and 30 billion dollars in 2030, according to estimates of the Indian minister.

Roberto Giannetti, director of the Department of International Relations of the Federation of Industries of Sao Paulo, said free trade between Mercosur and India would also be beneficial to Brazil.

“We’re very interested in a Mercosur-India free trade agreement. Brazil needs investments to be made in several areas and may also collaborate with India, especially in the supply of food and energy,” he said.

Brazil-India trade increased from 1 billion dollars in 2003 to 4.7 billion dollars in 2008, according to the Brazilian government.

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