Promoting India Latin America Collaboration

‘Global turmoil to have minimal impact on India’

Unlike SE Asia’s export-led model of growth, India follows a domestic demand-driven growth strategy that is much more insulated from a prolonged U.S. or European economic downturn.
Business-The Times of India

Despite financial crisis in the US market, India would continue to grow at high rate of 8% to 9% in the next couple of years. Chief economic advisor Arvind Virmani told TOI financial crisis will have a minimal direct impact on Indian economy and it will grow at the projected rate of around 8% in 2008-09 and 9% in 2009-10.

The main reason behind the optimism is correction in the commodity prices in the international market, because of the the slowdown in the global economy. The crude oil prices have already corrected to around $ 100 per barrel from over $ 140 per barrel few weeks back.

Goldman Sachs also felt in the same manner. In a report, it said, “We believe the credit crisis, which reversed the tidal wave of cheap foreign capital over the past few years, will have less of an impact on the economy’s fundamentals.”

If the inflation is brought down to single digit, the government and the RBI can take measures to ensure that liquidity crisis does not affect economy. Virmani said that India’s financial system remained intact even during the present crisis. This, he said would give confidence to the foreign investors, including the non-resident Indians to invest in India.

Goldman Sachs pointed out India’s external sector is holding well and various indicators suggest condition is undercontrol. The financial sector, the report said, remained sound, mortgage are a fraction of total credit and exposure to inflated real estate is small.

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Booz, Parthenon set up consultancies in India

The Economic Times

While Booz will initially start operations with a dozen consultants, the plan is to expand to 100 people in a couple of years. Booz, as part of its global restructuring exercise, had moved out of India in 2000.

Things are a lot different today. “Global companies are using the Indian model in various businesses. This is in countries like Africa and other developing economies,” says Suvojoy Sengupta, head of India operations, Booz and Co.

Globally, Booz has 3,300 people in its 57 office in 30 countries. “With India expected to grow at 7% per annum, companies are serious about India,” he adds. Apart from sectors such as telecom, energy and healthcare, Booz sees opportunities in other areas like supply-chain management. It is expected that the top team at Booz, comprising mainly people of Indian origin, is relocating to India from the offices in the US and UK. Globally, Booz clocks revenue of $1 bn.

Another strategic consultancy firm Parthenon has set up shop in India early this year. It relocated Chip Greene, an expat, to head the Asian operations in India. Today, the size of the team has increased to 15. The firm’s Mumbai office has already started servicing clients in China, Japan and Thailand. Parthenon has a different model of accepting fees.

For India, the time has come when its success in various industries can be replicated in other countries. That’s exactly what is happening as consultants are looking to make a name here.

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India’s sugar mills favour duty-free raws imports

Reuters

Indian mills should be allowed to import raw sugar duty-free against a commitment to export the refined commodity as domestic output is expected to fall sharply, a leading industry body said on Monday.

India, the world’s biggest producer of the sweetener after Brazil, allowed mills to import raw sugar free of duty in 2005 on the condition that the same amount of refined sugar would be exported within 36 months.

It is important that the scheme introduced in 2004/05 to improve capacity utilisation of the industry be put in place once again,” Jayantilal Patel, president of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories, said at the annual general meeting of the industry body.

Analysts say imports of raws by India would cheer major producers such as Brazil, Thailand and Australia and push up benchmark prices in New York and London. Patel said India’s sugar output, estimated to be about 20 million tonnes in the year from October, would fall short of likely domestic consumption of 22.5 million tonnes.

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Leading 200 Indian companies see stable cash flows in economic slowdown

The Hindu Business Line

Has economic slowdown taken a toll on the cash churned out by India’s leading companies? Are more companies reporting negative cash flows as a result of longer working capital cycles?

An analysis of the latest annual reports for the BSE 200 companies (representing 84 per cent of overall market capitalisation) reveals no cause for worry on this front.

First, the number of companies reporting negative cash from operations hasn’t significantly increased in 2007-08. Only one in every six companies in the BSE 200 (excluding banks) reported negative operating cash flows, much the same number as in 2007 and 2006.

Two, overall cash flows for the universe, at Rs.1.6 lakh crore for 2007-08, haven’t varied much over a three-year period. Some believe cash flows to be a better metric than net profits for gauging a company’s financial performance as they capture the results of operations shorn of attempts at window dressing arising from higher receivables (sales not converted into cash) or inventory held.
Growth in cash flows

ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries and NTPC top the list of companies which generated the highest cash flows from operations in 2007-08.

IT majors such as Infosys and TCS and FMCG players such as ITC also figured, not surprising given the high margins and low leverage characterising these businesses. However, not all of the top cash generators have seen significant growths in their operating cash flows in 2007-08.
‘Power’ show

Companies from sectors such as commodities, power generation and power equipment are the ones to show a sharp improvement in operating cash flows this year.

Why cash flows matter

One, healthy cash flows can help a company meet its funding requirements internally in a high borrowing cost environment. Two, a company’s ability to manage its debtor and inventory levels indicates the strength of the business, in a slowdown. In this regard, the top 200 companies in India might not have too much to worry about.

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Transportation Costs Are Stunting Exports in Brazil and LatAm

Over long distances, hauling freight by rail is the most economical option. Private companies in LatAm need to put building and upgrading rail lines to ports on the governmental agenda. Or do it themselves in conjunction with overseas investment partners where possible.

Brazil – Brazzil Mag

Latin American exports’ growth depends more on lower transport costs than on reduction of tariffs. This warning is in research “Unclogging the Arteries: A Report on the Impact of Transport Costs on Latin American and Caribbean Trade.”

Produced by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the study includes figures for nine countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and Uruguay.

The study should be presented on Wednesday, October 1st, in Brazilian capital Brasília, during seminar “Transport for Trade and Regional Integration”, promoted by the National Confederation of Industries (CNI) in partnership with the IDB. The participants should discuss relations between transport costs and foreign trade in Latin America and propose solutions to the logistics bottlenecks that affect Brazilian exports.

According to the study, a 10% reduction in the value of tariffs would increase exports by these countries by less than 2%. On the other hand, if the same reduction were made in transport costs, foreign sales to the United States would grow 39%. This calculation considers stability of other factors, like exchange rates and economic growth.

To IDB economist Mauricio Mesquita Moreira, one of the authors of the research, the governments of the countries in Latin America are more concerned with tariff and non-tariff barriers and forget other greater obstacles, like transport. “The trade policy in the region is out of focus,” criticizes Moreira.

The report also shows that if the countries in Latin America reduced freight costs by 10%, there would be trade growth of over 20% in the region. In case the reduction was in tariffs, the growth would be just 10%. The reduction of transport costs would benefit products made in Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay and ore and metal exports by Argentina, Colombia and Paraguay.

Latin America spends 7% of export value on freight, almost double the 3.7% spent by the United States. In the case of Brazil, this cost is equivalent to 5.5% of the product price.

“Despite being lower than the Latin American average, the country has been spending much more with transport than the United States,” stated Moreira. “Customs costs are not the main obstacles to foreign trade, with a few exceptions, as is the case with alcohol, cotton and orange. In most products, transport cost may be as much as 50% higher than tariffs.”

The researcher points out that there is space for reduction in transport costs. However, he recognizes that the products exported by the countries in Latin America require greater freight allocation, which ends up increasing costs.

“The comparison between exports of one dollar of chips and one dollar of soy is very different, as the latter is significantly larger. If we divide the weight of the product by its value, transport cost is much higher for primary products than for electronic products,” he explained.

Transport costs in Latin American are almost double that of the United States. According to the study, Argentina spends 22% more than the North Americans, Chile twice, and Paraguay, over four times. Latin American and Caribbean exports to the United States pay ocean freight almost 70% higher than those paid by Dutch products.

The report also shows that around 30% of the transport costs in Latin America are due to port inefficiency. To Moreira, this is the most important figure for the establishment of sector public policies.

“One of the main causes for inefficiency is port competition, which is smaller in Latin America than in the United States and the Netherlands,” he pointed out. “In this area, it is possible to reduce government interference, like the agreements that restrict coastwise navigation.”

Another obstacle is in air imports. According to the research, airfreight costs have grown faster in Latin America than in China and the rest of the world. Freight costs in the Caribbean in 2006, for example, were 36% higher than in 1995. In the same period, China kept the cost below the 1995 figure, despite higher oil prices.

Moreira adds that, in Brazil, airfreight is almost three times more expensive than in the United States. Another problem is that consumers and producers are not informed of these costs.

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